Oil in the Libyan War

The outbreak of Libya’s domestic riots has been nearly half a year. After Libya maintained its stability for more than 40 years, the civil war erupted. The fierce fighting, the long duration, the number of countries involved, and the uncertainties of its future development have shocked and puzzled the world. In-depth observations that the oil resources that are the lifeblood of its national economy are an inevitable factor in causing this unexpected event.

Libya is an important oil producer and exporter in the world. Currently, it has proven reserves of 45 to 50 billion barrels of crude oil, with an estimated total reserve of 100 billion barrels. Half of these are high quality, low*light oils. Since Libya discovered and vigorously developed oil in the late 1950s, it transformed itself from a poor and backward small country into an important oil exporter in the world. Rich oil resources also attract companies from all over the world to invest and develop in Libya. As a result, Libya’s economy has grown rapidly, its national strength has increased, and its people’s lives have been greatly improved. Therefore, this year's Libyan War has been running through oil.

Oil - the source of domestic **

Libya was almost "a rich overnight" because of the discovery of oil. The thorny problem that confronts its leader, Qaddafi, is how to distribute the oil wealth. Gaddafi has repeatedly proposed that the country’s oil exports be evenly distributed to each Libya. In 2008, Qaddafi even announced that he would send a monthly salary of 800 US dollars to each Libya. However, it has not actually been implemented. The western region near the capital is relatively good, and the government has not invested much in eastern cities like Benghazi in recent years. Some infrastructure in Benghazi has failed and affected residents’ normal lives. Youth unemployment there is also high. In addition, Benghazi was originally the base of Libya’s old dynasty, which was overthrown by Qaddafi. The hidden danger of rebellion has long been buried. Therefore, this civil war must first begin with Benghazi.

The reason why the fire in Benghazi can spread rapidly throughout the country is related to the disparity between the rich and the poor in the entire country. Earlier it was reported that Libya's oil revenue distribution to the general public was sent in the form of canned goods, bags of rice, and other physical objects. But after the sanctions were lifted, people’s eyes opened and they began to know how much the food was worth and how to calculate it, so dissatisfaction grew. Since the beginning of this century, Libya has emerged as a rich class after the country’s opening up of foreign investment. Some government officials and businessmen have made a fortune by doing business with westerners who previously hated Westerners and dealing with foreign companies investing in Libya. These people are very hard to fill and are very eye-catching. Gaddafi’s children’s privilege and the veil of luxury living were gradually unveiled, and Qaddafi’s commitments when people needed support were not fulfilled. The direct and most important reason for this Libya war is the contradiction between East and West, as well as ordinary people’s dissatisfaction with the rich class, caused by the uneven distribution of Libyan oil wealth.

Oil - the focus of war

Libya’s oil reserves are abundant and unevenly distributed. The major oil towns are located along the Mediterranean coast. From west to east, they are Zawiye, Benjav'ad, Raslanowe, Brega, Zuvetenay and Tu Bruck. These cities and towns are the most important battlefields of this war, and they are the targets for fierce competition between the two sides. Both sides have played several rounds of tug of war here, and neither side will give up. After all, each major oil city is an important part of the country's economic lifeline, playing a pivotal role in the entire war situation. At present, in addition to Zavier, the other five towns are in the hands of the opposition. The opposition has also won the neighboring city of Zawiye several times, and has made an almost equal effort in the city of Zawije.

It is precisely because of the many heavy oil towns that have been defended that the opposition is equal to the government forces in combat capabilities and power. It is also due to the possession of these oil capitals that the opposition has won numerous foreign aid support. Since the NATO coalition forces participated in the war against Libya, they have been standing on the side of the opposition to provide various forms of support and assistance to the opposition. In addition to the joint goal of the two sides, there is also the Western countries' Libyan oil resources, with a view to gaining a share in the reconstruction and development of Libya after the war, and even controlling part of the discourse power in Libya's future regime building. Even if there are many countries that remain neutral and have not participated in this war, they have not been enemies with the opposition. Instead, they treat both sides of the country as equals and have separate contacts. The reason why this situation will appear in Libya is mainly due to its abundant resource reserves and huge market potential.

Oil - basic security stability

Libya, Africa’s largest oil-storage country and fourth-largest oil producer, has historically been an important source of energy for Europe. Eight European oil companies, including Total of France and Royal Dutch Shell, accounted for 72% of Libya’s total production. The suspension of production caused by political turmoil directly affected the supply of oil in Europe. Can the Libya chaos lead to a new round of "oil crisis?" Looking at the oil production situation after the outbreak of the Libyan War and the oil supply situation in the world can be concluded: the outbreak of the Libyan war may cause a short-term shortage of international oil supply, it may also Pushing up oil prices in the short term will not have a major impact on the world's oil supply in the long run.

First, despite the outbreak of civil war, the oil industry is still protected in this country. Oil production resumed in a short period of time after the outbreak of the war, but production fell sharply. In wartime, Libya’s oil output provided the final fuel and fuel protection for its domestic warfare and normal life. On the other hand, maintaining part of the oil export, especially for countries that support the opposition, as a reward for their support, has also attracted more countries' support.

Second, the war in Libya continued and the country was turbulent. In particular, the destruction of oil facilities during the war inevitably affected oil production. However, Libya's pre-war oil production accounts for only 2% of the world's total. Therefore, its production cuts will not have a major impact on global oil supply. After Libya’s reduction of crude oil exports, other member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), especially Saudi Arabia, rapidly increased production to supplement global crude oil supply.

Thirdly, after the impact of several oil crises, the world's major oil consuming countries have established an oil security guarantee system, that is, adequate oil reserves will be made during peacetime, which will greatly reduce the direct impact of the shortage of oil supply on these countries. .

At present, Libya’s crisis will not temporarily affect China’s crude oil supply. Because of the distance between the two countries, China’s oil imports from Libya account for only a small part of the total oil supply, which is about 3%. Therefore, the escalation of war in Libya is not enough to significantly interfere with the channels and quantity of crude oil imported by China. The impact of this war on China’s oil imports is mainly reflected in the cost and price.

Petroleum is called "black gold" and is an important influence in the world. Abundant oil has made some otherwise ridiculous oil-producing countries have a higher strategic position, and fluctuations in oil prices have also affected and changed the entire world. Oil is also an important part of the politics of big countries. Libya, this oil revenue accounted for 95% of the country's economy, fighting for oil, and for the oil; rich also oil, trapped also oil.