Abstract The "Plastic Industry Access Conditions" (hereinafter referred to as "Conditions"), which was brewed and controversial for more than a year, was finally announced before the Spring Festival. This is the second time that the State Council listed polysilicon in the "overcapacity" blacklist in 2009 and stopped approving. ,first...

The "Plastic Industry Access Conditions" (hereinafter referred to as "Conditions"), which was brewed and controversial for more than a year, was finally announced before the Spring Festival. This is after the State Council listed the polysilicon in the "overcapacity" blacklist in 2009 and stopped approving it. For the first time, the polysilicon industry was loosened.

However, the industry's "bottom line" was introduced soon, and it was considered too strict by most SMEs in the industry. In particular, the "conditions" proposed by the end of 2011, the power consumption deadline rectification order, so that a group of small and medium enterprises face the fate of being eliminated.

Relevant experts told this reporter that the strict implementation of the standard, after the rectification, qualified enterprises will not exceed 10, about 80% of enterprises will be eliminated.

Strict "conditions"

On September 26, 2009, the State Council issued the No. 38 document jointly drafted by several ministries and commissions - "Several Opinions on Suppressing Partially Overcapacity and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of the Industry", which included polysilicon in the "overcapacity" blacklist. At the same time, the approval of the polysilicon expansion project was stopped.

Since then, the polysilicon and optoelectronics industries have entered a period of silence. Until January 2010, the discussion on the "Conditions" began. This document was once considered to be the state of the country loosened by the industry. However, until the Spring Festival this year, the "Conditions" jointly formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Environmental Protection were finally published.

"We basically went through all the places where we concentrated polysilicon enterprises in the country to conduct research and listened to the opinions of all parties including local governments and enterprises. It can be said that the final products have been fully recognized by them, especially some large enterprises. The introduction of this document is not a restriction, but a norm and guidance." An official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told this reporter.

According to the survey conducted by the Electronics Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the current planned investment in the polysilicon industry in the country exceeds 130 billion yuan, the actual investment is only 40 billion yuan, and the design capacity of projects under construction reaches more than 60,000 tons.

“This shows how big the investment impulse of the domestic polysilicon industry is, but we really master the core technology, but we can finally form a scale.” The official said, “Therefore, this policy was researched through market discussion, not the government. The brains that are formulated for the big companies in the industry can be said to be support rather than suppression."

As the above-mentioned officials said, the "Conditions" was introduced to cultivate large enterprises. Several polysilicon small and medium-sized enterprises interviewed by the reporter generally believed that the "conditions" were put under great pressure after the introduction.

The disputes of SMEs are mainly concentrated on two points. One is that the “Conditions” stipulate that the scale of solar-grade polysilicon projects should be greater than 3,000 tons/year, and the minimum capital ratio of investment in new construction and renovation projects should not be less than 30%.

After the introduction of the "Conditions", some large enterprises believe that the scale of many domestic enterprises has reached 5,000 tons / year, and the scale of 3,000 tons / year is relatively low, while small enterprises think it is difficult to get from the existing ones in a short time. The scale of 100 tons jumped to 3,000 tons/year.

"The intention of the document is obvious, that is, to cultivate large enterprises with international competitiveness." A sales manager of a polysilicon production small enterprise told reporters, "But at present, more than 80% of polysilicon production enterprises in China are small and medium-sized enterprises, and their single-line production is only Hundreds of tons, directly eliminating the existing production line to form a scale of 3,000 tons, the pressure on capital is large."

The source told reporters that since the introduction of Document No. 38, major banks have basically stopped lending to polysilicon projects, and the new threshold has proposed that “the minimum capital ratio of investment in new construction and renovation projects should not be less than 30%”. It is stipulated that this is tantamount to worse.

He calculated the account for the reporter. The investment of 1,000 tons of production scale is about 700 million yuan to 800 million yuan. The construction scale of 3,000 tons and the minimum capital of 30% are about 630 million yuan to 720 million yuan. This has no source of loans. The SME is a wall again.

In this regard, Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that there are currently 25 polysilicon enterprises in operation and 28 under construction. "These companies will eventually meet the requirements and will not exceed 10." About 80% of polysilicon manufacturers will be eliminated in this reshuffle.

In addition, a person familiar with the matter told reporters that the document has been “hidden” from the website by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The “Document” will be revised and signed with the Ministry of Science and Technology and other departments to generate new texts for publication on the website. The reporter saw on the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information that the file could not be searched, but the search engine searched for the file name and the full text of the "Conditions" linked by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

However, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, who was interviewed by this reporter, denied that "there will be a signing again." He said that before the document was issued, it had been reviewed by various ministries and commissioned, and submitted to the State Council for approval before it was released. It is impossible to say that it would be changed.

Reduce costs in order to get online at a fair price

In addition to the above constraints, the National Development and Reform Commission also issued the "Notice on Clearing the Issues Concerning Preferential Electricity Prices for High Energy-Efficient Enterprises" in the middle of last year. Since June 1 of that year, polysilicon has been listed as a high-energy-consuming enterprise, and the price concession has been stopped.

Under normal circumstances, the cost of electricity costs accounts for 30%-40% of the total cost, and the cancellation of the preferential electricity price policy will increase the cost for all polysilicon manufacturers.

Regarding the preferential policies, Meng Xianyu said to the newspaper, "After the company's gradual compliance with the conditions, the loan and preferential electricity price policy will be opened to the industry again."

He explained that the average integrated electricity consumption of China's polysilicon production is 160-200 degrees/kg, and the comprehensive power consumption of large enterprises with good production lines can reach 60 degrees/kg, but the electricity consumption of most small enterprises is basically 200 degrees / kg or more, so the "Conditions" proposed that "by the end of 2011, the elimination of comprehensive power consumption of more than 200 kWh / kg of solar-grade polysilicon production line" will form a constraint on enterprises with high energy consumption and serious pollution.

The above-mentioned officials of the Electronic Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also said that the industry itself requires enterprises to have a certain scale of production. If the scale is not up, it will be difficult to do so. In the past few years, the domestic polysilicon industry has experienced low-level redundant construction and blind investment.

"The new access standards will increase the investment cost of technology, but it will not exceed 20%. The investment of 1000 tons/year is 700 million, of which only about 100 million are in environmental protection technology. However, it can increase production, reduce the cost of a single piece, and ultimately reduce the cost price.” Meng Xianyu said that the cost of polysilicon for 99.9999% purity is now controlled at around US$22, and the international cost of US$20 has been very close.

At present, the production cost of China's polysilicon producers is between US$30 and US$50/kg, and the average selling price is between US$55 and US$/kg. Therefore, the production cost can be reduced to achieve profitability.

"If the production and production continue to shift to the Midwest, the cost price will drop to less than 20 US dollars, and the downstream of the polysilicon industry chain will be greatly reduced. The cost of photovoltaic power generation will be greatly reduced. At that time, the optical price level is not out of reach." Meng Xianyu said .

Is there any excess capacity?

The "Conditions" not only clearly stipulates and limits the scale of production, energy consumption and resource recovery, but also specifically proposes that the new polysilicon project will not be approved in principle before the introduction of the new catalogue for government investment projects, but it will strengthen technological innovation. Projects that are necessary to build energy conservation and environmental protection, etc., shall be reported to the State Council investment department for organization and demonstration.

This is the first official loosening statement following the suspension of the approval of the new polysilicon project in Circular No. 38 in 2009. In fact, as early as the second half of last year, there have been signs of loosening. Jiangsu Zhongneng's 3 billion yuan polysilicon production line technical transformation project, which was temporarily put on hold by the Development and Reform Commission, was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in early October 2010. Jiangsu Zhongneng's new production capacity is about 3,000 tons.

The release of production capacity is a correction to the previous “overcapacity”. Previously, when the “overcapacity” was proposed, the opposition party stated that China’s polysilicon demand in 2008 was 25,000 tons, and the actual domestic production only produced 5,000 tons. There is no excess. The authors believe that as of the first half of 2009, the domestic polysilicon project has built, under construction and proposed more than 50 projects, the investment scale will exceed 130 billion yuan, the production capacity will exceed 230,000 tons, and the production capacity is seriously over-capacity.

In response, the above-mentioned Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officials told this reporter that "in the formulation of the policy, there is not much limitation in the definition of overcapacity. Including the No. 38 document issued by the State Council in September 2009, which does not have polysilicon. Directly use the concept of overcapacity, but rather the risk of overcapacity."

Meng Xianyu also said that it is not appropriate to define overcapacity, and the "capacity" of overcapacity is misunderstood capacity. "In fact, the planned overcapacity is a false report at the local level. Our production capacity is not enough in 2009, 2010 is not enough, and 2011 is not enough."

According to him, China's polysilicon production in 2010 was 42,000 tons, while demand was as high as 70,000 tons, and the gap was as high as 38,000 tons. Domestic production capacity is far from enough, and it still needs to be imported.

"So after the establishment of the entry permit, there will still be a lot of room for the development of a strong enterprise, and how much profit will be generated by the large capacity gap," said Yang Guangtao, director of the brand of Pune Solar.  

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