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The international financial crisis that has not happened in a hundred years has dealt a heavy blow to the world economy and has also had a serious impact on China's economic development. In the face of the crisis, China's economic theory community quickly invested in relevant research work with a high sense of responsibility and mission, conducted on-the-spot investigations, conducted academic exchanges, actively offered advice and suggestions, and worked hard to contribute wisdom to effectively cope with the international financial crisis. China's economic situation under the background of the international financial crisis is a hot topic in the research and analysis of economic theory. Experts and scholars have made judgments and analyses on China's economic situation from different angles, and have considered and explored how to solve outstanding problems in China's economic operation.
Economic situation analysis and trend analysis The overall economic situation is improving. Experts and scholars generally believe that China's economic downturn has been initially contained, and the economy has rebounded, but the foundation for growth is still not stable and still in a difficult period. The economic data in the first few months of this year is mixed, indicating that the expansionary policy has not fully offset the impact of the accelerated economic downturn. Some experts believe that although the severe situation of economic growth has been alleviated, it will take time to truly stabilize and recover and enter a continuous upward channel. Some experts believe that China's economy has bottomed out and stabilized, but it may not be the bottom but the flat bottom, that is, the economic development will show a U-shaped trend, and it may take two or three years to consolidate before it can return to the fast-growing channel.
The growth of external demand is not optimistic. Some experts believe that the effects of China's policy measures for stable exports are beginning to emerge, and that exports are expected to stabilize and stabilize. Some experts also believe that the key to China's export situation depends on when the external market picks up. At present, the global economy is still in a difficult period, and developed countries will not be able to escape the crisis this year. Therefore, the decline in exports for the whole year is inevitable, but the decline in exports will not continue to expand. It is expected that the decline of the world economy will shrink in the second half of the year, and the negative growth rate of China's exports will continue to narrow in the second half of this year.
Domestic demand began to start. From the perspective of investment demand, experts and scholars generally believe that investment performance has been outstanding this year and has become the most important force driving China's economic growth. In particular, the newly started projects have grown rapidly, providing a strong traction for economic growth. After the completion of the early stage development of large-scale infrastructure construction, the investment in industrial and other industries will be more obvious. From the perspective of consumer demand, it is generally believed that China's consumer demand growth still has great potential. The severe employment situation has led to a slowdown in the growth rate of urban residents' income, and it is more difficult for farmers to increase their income, which will reduce the consumption growth rate accordingly. However, driven by tax incentives, automobile home appliances to the countryside and old-for-new policies, automobile and household appliances consumption will continue to grow rapidly. The rigid and improved demand for real estate will be partially released. Consumer demand has remained basically stable.
The economic structure tends to be optimized. From the perspective of industrial structure, low-end industrial growth has slowed down, and infrastructure and service industries have accelerated. The growth of high-energy-consuming industries has slowed down, and economic growth has rebounded and unit energy consumption has declined. Investment in high-tech industries and high-end manufacturing industries is increasing, and the role of high-tech industries in driving overall industrial recovery is increasing. From the perspective of regional structure, the crisis response model that relied mainly on the first recovery in the eastern region has changed. The growth rate of major economic indicators in the central and western regions is significantly faster than that in the eastern region. From the perspective of income structure, the distribution relationship between the state, enterprises and individuals has changed, and the income of urban and rural residents has shown a steady growth trend, which is conducive to improving the purchasing power of residents and expanding consumer demand.
The effects of economic policies have gradually emerged. In response to the international financial crisis, the central government decided in a timely and decisive manner to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and quickly launched a package plan to promote stable and rapid economic development, focusing on adjusting the structure of internal and external demand, and focusing on expanding domestic policies. Demand, especially in rural and central and western regions, has contributed to the overall economic situation. Experts and scholars generally believe that the effects of the central government's policy measures to stimulate the economy have already appeared. Fiscal and monetary policy implementation was better than expected. Money and credit have grown rapidly, and signs of inflation turning into deflation have improved. Some experts have estimated that if we do not adopt a package of economic policies that expand the scale of central government investment, the transformation of value-added tax, reduce administrative fees, and increase the income of residents, China's economic growth in 2009 may be only about 5%. After adopting these measures, it can boost the annual economic growth by more than 2.6 percentage points.
The main problems in economic operation The economic growth rate is obviously low. In the first quarter of this year, the economic growth rate fell to 6.1%, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. This has led to an increase in contradictions in fiscal revenues and expenditures and an increase in employment pressure. The important reason is that the demand-side dependence on the external economy has not changed fundamentally, while the major trading partners have been sluggish and the market demand has shrunk dramatically. The outlook for foreign trade is unclear and needs to be compensated by expanding domestic demand.
Domestic demand expansion remains fragile. The main problems in investment are: the persistence of high-level government investment needs attention, and the implementation of supporting funds to stimulate the economy is the biggest problem facing local governments at present; manufacturing investment is still lower than normal years, and production is formed to meet export demand. It is more difficult to fully turn to domestic demand; the effect of government investment to promote private investment is still not obvious, and the growth momentum of private investment is insufficient. The main reasons affecting the growth of private investment are: lack of investor confidence and ability; low return rate in traditional investment field, lack of innovation ability of enterprises, lack of new investment hotspots; high barriers to entry in public service sector; narrow private investment space. The main problems in consumption are: due to the decline in employment rate, the income of residents is limited, and the upgrading of consumption structure is blocked. From the housing market, the current housing prices are still high, and the potential market demand for improving housing conditions is difficult to fully release in the short term. From the perspective of the auto market, it is difficult to see a leap in the short term. In addition to housing and cars, there have been no new consumption hot spots. Insufficient consumption growth will constrain private investment follow-up and will also exacerbate the contradiction between overcapacity and production.
The structural adjustment power is not strong. Mainly due to the lack of endogenous power for structural transformation and upgrading, the eastern coastal areas are mainly forced to undergo structural adjustment by the economic crisis. Sustained rather than cyclical structural adjustments require institutional, institutional, and institutional arrangements.
The contradiction between overcapacity and insufficient market demand has intensified. Outstanding performance: the sales rate of industrial products continued to decline, inventory increased significantly; corporate profits fell sharply, especially in some overcapacity industries, the losses were very serious; product prices fell sharply.
The risk of invalid currency is increased. In recent months, China's currency credit has grown rapidly, and the increase in speculative or inefficient currency is likely to increase future inflationary pressures. The structural problems of credit supply may have certain constraints on future economic growth, including: the improvement of the financing environment of SMEs is not obvious; the proportion of credit lines of residents is low; some funds do not flow into the real economy, which will reduce the support of credit to the production activities of enterprises. .
Efforts and focus points Experts and scholars believe that the current economic situation should be closely followed and carefully analyzed, and the momentum of China's economic stabilization and recovery should be stabilized, and efforts should be made to form a solid foundation for supporting sustained economic growth in the future.
Regulate the total amount and enhance vitality. Some experts believe that it is necessary to maintain the stability of macro-control policies, maintain financial investment, and continue to reduce taxes. At the same time, we will focus on supporting and refining policies. Some experts have suggested that policies should be appropriately adjusted as the most critical moments pass. As far as fiscal policy is concerned, more financial subsidies should be used to support technological transformation and individual entrepreneurship, to expand domestic demand and open up markets. As far as monetary policy is concerned, the deposit and loan interest rate should be fine-tuned while lowering the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks. It is necessary to accurately judge the money supply situation and enhance the flexibility and flexibility of the policy. Some experts believe that China's macro-control policies should shift to further stimulate consumption and foster new market hotspots, turn to the combination of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing external demand, and turn to deepen reform to stimulate economic vitality. Some experts have suggested that if the economic recovery is slower than expected, the government can consider introducing new stimulus policies in stimulating private investment, strengthening the vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises and the non-public economy. With the economic downturn being curbed, the newly introduced macro-control policies should focus on long-term sustainable economic development, focusing on promoting enterprises' growth mode and development strategy adjustment.
Expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand. Some experts believe that the policy of expanding domestic demand should be further strengthened. In terms of expanding investment demand, the policy focus of investment management should shift from total stimulus to structural adjustment, focusing on increasing investment in people's livelihood projects; focusing on industrial upgrading investment, investing in hard assets and investing in soft assets such as management systems; In the process of gradual implementation of investment, we should focus on the organic integration of state-owned capital and private capital, enhance the government's public service capacity, improve the investment environment, and activate social investment. In terms of expanding consumer demand, the first is to revitalize the service industry and solve the problem of lagging development of the service industry. Second, continue to encourage automobile and housing consumption, and play the role of the automobile industry and real estate industry as the pillar industries of China's current economic development. Third, continue to implement and We will improve policies and measures for car appliances to the countryside and trade-in. Many experts have conducted research on stabilizing external demand and proposed to increase support for exports, including: continue to clean up and cancel policies and regulations that restrict exports that do not adapt to changes in the situation; use financial, credit and other means to support The export of products with competitive advantages; the use of foreign trade development funds to support enterprise exports, to provide services for enterprises to overcome trade barriers and expand exports; to encourage qualified enterprises to "go global" and promote the export of related products.
Deepen reform and innovate the system. Experts and scholars believe that the pattern of national income distribution should be adjusted to increase the proportion of labor income and increase the level of household consumption in order to facilitate the formation of endogenous power for long-term economic growth. On the basis of openness and transparency, a mechanism for transferring some state-owned enterprise dividends to the field of public expenditure should be established. This will not only help improve people's livelihood, stimulate consumption, but also help to curb the investment impulse of state-owned enterprises. Support the development of SMEs, improve the financing environment for SMEs, and enhance economic vitality. Closely combine monetary policy adjustment with financial structure reform, avoiding the dilemma of "initiating floodgates" to generate inflationary pressures and compressing credit to cause damage to the real economy. Accelerate financial reform and innovation of financial institutions, improve the efficiency of the financial system, and change the situation that bank deposits are very large on the one hand, and the funding needs of small and medium-sized enterprises and farmers are not satisfied.
Adjust the structure and promote transformation. Experts and scholars generally believe that realizing the true recovery and sustained growth of the economy will ultimately depend on the economic transformation brought about by technological progress and industrial restructuring. First, promote industrial restructuring and upgrading. Continue to promote the development of heavy chemical industry, and combine the development of new technology industries with the development of heavy chemical industry. Cultivate and support new economic growth points such as new energy, new energy vehicles, third-generation mobile communications, and biotechnology. Develop modern service industries and develop tertiary industries such as culture and tourism. Establish and improve the exit mechanism, resolutely eliminate backward production capacity, and strictly control low-level redundant construction. Second, promote corporate transformation. Promote enterprise scale structure optimization through low-cost mergers and acquisitions; promote enterprise organization innovation and management innovation; encourage enterprises to carry out independent innovation, develop new products and new technologies; promote enterprises to realize low-cost competition to differentiated competition and diversification as soon as possible The strategic transformation from reintegration and scale expansion to quality success.
Along with the continuous development of China's economy and society, the hot issues of the theory that the people are concerned about are constantly emerging. Capturing and discovering problems, analyzing and explaining problems are important prerequisites for unifying thoughts, forming consensus, and cohesing forces to solve problems. From today on, the newspaper has set up a "hot spot tracking" column in the theoretical version. It focuses on the hot issues that people are generally concerned with, and uses research and other forms to reflect the theoretical analysis and research and exploration of experts and scholars from different angles and different aspects, so that readers can understand relevant The overview and progress of the research provide theoretical and theoretical support for understanding and solving problems.