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[The China Automobile Dealers Association's "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" released on August 3, VIA shows that the pressure on oversupply in the automotive circulation sector has slowed down. The July 2016 inventory warning index was 49.5%, down from last month. 10.2 percentage points. ]
[In 2015, 37 major auto companies, which accounted for 98% of China's auto production, formed a total vehicle production capacity of 31.22 million units. Among them, passenger car production capacity was 25.75 million, capacity utilization rate was 81%; commercial vehicle production capacity was 5.47 million, and capacity utilization rate was only 52%. ]
[In the first half of this year, China’s new energy vehicles have slowed down in the case of severe fraud and subsidies. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted at the beginning of the year that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 700,000 units this year, but the fact is that only 24% was achieved in the first half of the year. ]
Some auto companies have overcapacity, and some automakers have insufficient capacity. This is a situation that the auto industry is hard to avoid.
Whether it is overcapacity or insufficient capacity, the structural imbalance that has been difficult to return has become one of the urgent problems to be solved in China's auto industry. Major multinational joint venture car companies have accelerated their production capacity in China. At the same time, domestic independent brands are also accelerating the pace of expansion. In the case of a slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese auto market, the contradiction of overcapacity may further intensify.
Frequent problems
Chen Binbo, executive deputy general manager of Dongfeng Honda, said in an interview with the media recently that the company’s sales exceeded expectations this year. Dongfeng Honda’s existing two factories have a combined total production capacity of 480,000 units, while Dongfeng Honda will challenge more than 500,000 units this year. Sales, the construction of the third plant is under discussion, and it is expected that relevant news will be released in the near future.
Since the beginning of this year, Dongfeng Honda has also faced the shortage of automakers and GAC passenger cars under the Guangzhou Automobile Group. Since the launch of the first Chuanqi sedan at the end of 2010, the sales volume of GAC has grown from 17,000 in 2011 to 2015. In the year of 190,000 vehicles, the compound annual growth rate was 80%. In the first half of this year, it ranked first in the Chinese brand with a growth rate of 170%. The sales volume reached 159,000 units, exceeding the half-year sales target.
Guangzhou Automobile Chuanqi began construction of the second production line of Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Vehicles in March 2015, with a planned production capacity of 150,000 vehicles/year, plus a first-line standard production capacity of 200,000 vehicles/year. Can this meet the current market demand and solve the problem of insufficient production capacity? The situation still needs the test of market and time.
In addition, the third plant of Guangqi Honda, which was completed in October last year, has an initial production capacity of 120,000 vehicles/year and will reach 240,000 vehicles/year in the future, temporarily easing the production pressure of Guangzhou Honda this year.
The second joint venture of GAC Fiat Chrysler, another joint venture of GAC Group, was also completed in Guangzhou in April this year. The annual production capacity of the plant is 160,000 units, plus the production capacity of Guangzhou Automobile Fiat Chrysler originally in the first plant in Changsha, 210,000 units. Fiat Chrysler's production capacity is also approaching 400,000 units, preparing for Jeep domestic and sales.
In addition, the Guangzhou Automobile Toyota's third production line under the Guangzhou Automobile Group has also started construction in March this year. The new production line will start with an annual output of 100,000 units. In the future, it can be expanded to an annual output of 220,000 units, and the total production capacity of GAC Toyota will be It reaches 600,000 vehicles per year.
Toyota Motor Corporation ended the "three-year expansion freeze period", in addition to the construction of the third production line of GAC Toyota in China, another joint venture, FAW Toyota, is also expanding its production line. FAW Toyota's new first production line expansion project has been approved to build a passenger car project code-named 280B with a capacity of 100,000 units/year and a project investment of RMB 6,044.8 billion. Construction has started this year and is expected to be completed in July 2017.
All of these vehicles are due to lack of capacity, and new or new production lines are being prepared to alleviate the shortage of production capacity.
Xu Changming, director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, said in an interview with the reporter of the “First Financial Daily†on August 3 that some auto companies are facing insufficient production capacity due to the hot market, so they cannot approve the new production lines of these automakers. Starting from the actual situation, this is also the reason why the new project has been tightened but some car companies still pass.
"However, China's auto industry does have overcapacity, but it is a structural overcapacity. Now it needs structural adjustment, and this will be determined by the market. In the increasingly competitive market, some auto companies will be eliminated." Chang Ming said.
For example, in May of this year, Guangzhou Automobile Group disbanded Guangqi Hino (Shenyang) Automobile Co., Ltd., which cleared the passenger car.
The Guangzhou Automobile Group, which has a serious overcapacity, has also made drastic adjustments.
GAC Gonow has 300,000 units and 150,000 units of annual production capacity in Taizhou, Zhejiang and Dongying, respectively. However, the company produced only 395 units in the first half of this year, down 94.05% year-on-year, of which only one was produced in April. And the output in June was 0; the sales volume in the first 6 months was only 1,519, down 79.66% year-on-year.
In this regard, GAC Passenger Car purchased a 49% stake in GAC Gonow held by Gio Holdings and renamed GAC Gio as “Guangzhou Automobile Group Passenger Car (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd.â€. According to the plan, GAC Group will renovate some of the original production bases of GAC Gonow, and produce Chuanqi and other self-developed cars and SUV new models. The total investment of the project is 3.75 billion yuan, thereby revitalizing the idle production base.
Structural imbalance
Although the automobile industry has not been included in the key industries for de-capacity, the National Development and Reform Commission’s first statement on “the problem of structural overcapacity of China’s auto production capacity†has once again triggered a heated debate on the overcapacity of the auto industry.
In the face of insufficient capacity utilization, the problem of structural overcapacity of automobile production has already appeared. The Industry Coordination Division of the National Development and Reform Commission announced in May this year that it has established automobile capacity survey analysis and information release with China Automotive Industry Association and China Automotive Technology and Research Center. The mechanism will conduct regular vehicle capacity surveys and analysis and release them.
In 2015, 37 major auto companies, which accounted for 98% of China's auto production, formed a total vehicle production capacity of 31.22 million units. Among them, passenger car production capacity was 25.75 million, capacity utilization rate was 81%; commercial vehicle production capacity was 5.47 million, and capacity utilization rate was only 52%. In contrast, overcapacity in commercial vehicles is more serious than in passenger cars.
In the past few years, various local governments have used the automobile industry as a pillar industry in the process of industrial restructuring, which has contributed to the expansionary impulse of automobile manufacturers.
Xu Changming believes that the newly approved commercial vehicle projects are relatively few, and most of them are still built factories. Due to the cold winter in the commercial vehicle market in recent years, sales have continued to decline, resulting in overcapacity.
Shen Jinjun, president of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said in an interview with the "First Financial Daily" reporter last year that there have been structural overcapacity a few years ago, but due to the rapid growth of the previous auto market, some of the capacity was quickly digested, and in 2014, In 2015, the auto market slowed down, and the contradiction between overcapacity and market demand was intensified. However, some manufacturers still have insufficient effective production capacity, and many auto manufacturers have expanded blindly. In the face of changes in oversupply in the market, this requires car manufacturers and dealers to work together.
This year is the first year of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and the car companies have started a new round of capacity expansion. KPMG, a consulting firm, pointed out in a prophecy report that in 2016, the Chinese auto market will be the country with the most oversupply problems in the BRIC countries.
However, in the first half of this year, the situation of China's auto market was unsatisfactory. China's auto production and sales were 12.8922 million and 12.829 million, up 6.47% and 8.14% year-on-year, an increase of 3.83 percentage points and 6.71 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1,109,940 and 1,104,230, an increase of 7.32% and 9.23% year-on-year; the production and sales of commercial vehicles was 1,792,700 and 1,784,400, an increase of 1.50% and 1.87%.
The China Automobile Dealers Association's "China Automotive Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" VIA (VehicleInventoryAlertIndex) also showed that the pressure on oversupply in the automotive circulation sector has slowed down. The July 2016 inventory warning index was 49.5%. Last month, it dropped by 10.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index fell below the warning line.
It is the “13th Five-Year†auto market that started relatively smoothly, which once again triggered concerns about the intensification of overcapacity in the industry, especially for new energy vehicles that are in full swing.
According to the "13th Five-Year Plan", by 2020, the annual production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 5 million. Compared with the annual sales of 330,000 vehicles for new energy vehicles in China in 2015, the target of 5 million vehicles means that in the next five years, China will need to add an additional 930,000 new energy vehicles per year.
In order to seize the new energy vehicle market, many car companies have set the sales target of the “13th Five-Year†new energy vehicles. At present, only some car companies have announced that the total sales target of new energy vehicles in 2020 has exceeded 5 million. Many car companies have raised funds to build new energy vehicle production lines, and even some companies are suspected of failing to build first.
According to He Haixia, a researcher at Haitong Securities New Energy, most of the new energy auto industry parks in some places are local governments that are aiming at the performance of the new energy auto industry and launching such key investment projects that drive the local economy.
It is worth noting that in the first half of this year, China's new energy vehicles produced 177,000 vehicles and sold 170,000 vehicles, up 125% and 126.9% respectively. Despite the rapid growth, the growth rate has slowed down in the face of severe fraud and subsidies. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted at the beginning of the year that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 700,000 units this year, but the fact is that only 24% was achieved in the first half of the year.
With the introduction of new plans for the production and marketing of the “13th Five-Year Planâ€, coupled with the new energy vehicle projects that have been launched, the relevant agencies predict that China’s automobile production capacity will reach 50 million in 2020. At the same time, industry institutions and car companies are forecasting a growth rate of 4% to 5% for the “13th Five-Year†auto market. By 2020, the national auto market demand will be around 30 million. Therefore, there is a voice in the industry that China's automobile production capacity will reach 20 million vehicles by 2020.
In this regard, Xu Changming believes that "overcapacity is not so terrible, planning is planning after all, enterprises may not be able to rush to produce according to the plan, but will make timely adjustments according to the actual situation of the market."
Car enterprise self-regulation
As China's international development enters a new normal, the growth rate of the automobile market has slowed down markedly, and the problem of structural overcapacity of automobile production has already appeared.
The industry has put forward several suggestions: the utilization rate of commercial vehicles is low, and the investment in production capacity is not blindly increased. The investment in the power battery field is relatively hot, the enterprises are scattered, and the level of technology and development is uneven. It is necessary to prevent low-level redundant construction; Strengthen investment in new technologies, new product research and development and industrialization, improve existing capacity utilization, enhance resource integration capabilities, and actively carry out international capacity cooperation.
In the face of the new situation, the six major automobile groups also exercised restraint in formulating the "13th Five-Year Plan". In addition to SAIC Group's specific production and sales targets for 2020, the production and sales targets of Dongfeng Motor, FAW Group, Changan Group, BAIC Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group will be 5.6 million units, over 4 million units and 4.4 million units respectively. 4.5 million and 2.4 million. In addition to Dongfeng Motor and BAIC Group's 2020 production and sales target is higher than 2015, the other three auto groups' production and sales targets in 2020 are significantly lower than the 2015 target.
Previously, SAIC Group, Dongfeng Motor, FAW Group, Changan Group, BAIC Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group each formulated the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. The production and sales targets for 2015 were 6 million, 5 million, 5 million and 5 million respectively. 3.5 million vehicles and 3 million vehicles, and the actual sales of the six automobile groups in 2015 were 586,300, 3,872,500, 2,834,800, 2,776,500, 2,485,900 and 1,303,100. In 2015, the year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†ended, none of the six automobile groups met the standard as scheduled.
Although half of the car companies have adjusted the production target of the 13th Five-Year Plan to be lower than the 12th Five-Year Plan, it does not mean that there is no difficulty. Among them, the sixth-ranked Guangzhou Automobile Group, in order to achieve 2020 production and sales nearly doubled in 2015, the current capacity adjustments are greatly adjusted, while using the "addition and subtraction method", in addition to the production capacity of subsidiaries with insufficient capacity to build new production lines In addition, some factories with idle capacity are also revitalized or directly cut off.
Relatively speaking, the large automobile group has strong anti-market risk capability, and can partially solve the problem of excess capacity through internal adjustment. For some small and medium-sized car companies, they need to be more cautious and restrained in production capacity. If they are not careful, they will be eliminated by the market.
Wu Songquan, director of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, said that auto companies should plan and roll production in capacity building. For example, the new factory can be constructed in phases, not in one step; the production shifts should be arranged reasonably according to demand, and the production cycle should be adjusted appropriately; the old production equipment should be technically modified to effectively utilize the production capacity.
In Xu Changming's view, overcapacity is an inevitable phenomenon of the market economy. The competition in the automobile industry will undoubtedly increase, but this is a structural adjustment process. For competitive car companies such as products and production systems, even in relative In a saturated market environment, it is still possible to break through the encirclement. The Matthew effect is increasingly prominent. The strong is strong and the weak is weak. In the survival of the fittest, overcapacity will be alleviated accordingly.
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Abstract [Comparatively, the large automobile group has a strong ability to resist market risks, and it is possible to resolve some of the excess capacity risks through internal adjustment. For some small and medium-sized car companies, they need to be more cautious and restrained in production capacity. If they are not careful, they will be eliminated by the market] [China Steam...
[Relatively speaking, the large automobile group has a strong ability to resist market risks, and it is possible to resolve some of the excess capacity risks through internal adjustment. For some small and medium-sized car companies, they need to be more cautious and restrained in production capacity. If they are not careful, they will be eliminated by the market]