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Market changes and economic operation analysis of machine tool industry <br> Comprehensive national and industry statistics and customs import and export data, from three parts: market changes and economic operation, basic estimates of next year's situation, corporate concerns and views Analysis of market changes and economic operations of China's machine tool industry.
I. Market changes and economic performance
In 2015, the market and economic operation of the machine tool industry entered the downward channel. In the fifth year, compared with previous years, the industry suffered a downward pressure with a greater intensity and a wider range. The overall situation is more severe.
1. 2015 industry climate index
Beginning in 2014, the Association tried to use the probabilistic index analysis method (similar to the PMI index) to specifically assess the prosperity of China's machine tool manufacturing industry, in order to provide a necessary reference for the operators of industry enterprises to judge the situation and make business decisions. To this end, we conduct sample questionnaire surveys for industry business operators, and use the index analysis method to statistically process the survey results, thus forming a boom index of the machine tool industry. At the end of 2015, we distributed questionnaires to more than 200 key enterprises in the industry. A total of 81 industry companies returned questionnaires. The distribution of the companies returning to the questionnaire (sample distribution) is as follows: From the perspective of the sub-industry, the number of gold cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, functional components and numerical control systems, measuring tools and foundry machinery companies accounted for 52%, 20%, 13% respectively. , 11% and 4%; from the perspective of corporate ownership, state-owned and collective holdings, private holdings, other, foreign investment and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan holding companies accounted for 45%, 31%, 17%, 7%. The sample enterprise distribution has considerable coverage and representativeness.
The following is an analysis of the industry climate index and comparison between 2015 and the same period from different angles. In 2015, the industry's overall prosperity index was only 34.5%, well below the 50% cut-off line, and significantly decreased by 8.8 percentage points compared with 2014.
Judging from the economic situation of the sub-sectors, the prosperity index of each sub-sector in 2015 was lower than that of 2014. Among them, the metal cutting machine tool is 36%, a slight decrease of 3 percentage points compared with 2014; the metal forming machine tool is 33.3%, a steep drop of 30.4 percentage points (47.7%) compared with 2014; the amount of work is 21.4%, Compared with 2014, the steep drop was 29.3 percentage points (a decrease of 57.8%); the functional components and numerical control system were 31%, a significant drop of 15.8 percentage points (down 33.8%) compared with 2014. The rankings of the degree of decline in the boom index were metal forming machine tools (30.4 percentage points), measuring tools (29.3 percentage points), functional components and numerical control systems (15.8 percentage points) and metal cutting machine tools (3 percentage points). The above industry index and comparison are basically in line with the actual trend of the industry market and economic operation.
From the perspective of the business climate of different ownership systems, the prosperity index of all types of enterprises with ownership in 2015 was lower than that of 2014. Among them, state-owned and collectively-controlled enterprises accounted for 36.7%, a significant decrease of 9.8 percentage points compared with 2014; privately-owned enterprises were 34.5%, a significant drop of 22.4 percentage points compared with 2014; foreign investment and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan holding enterprises were 23.9%. Compared with 2014, it dropped 43.3 percentage points; other ownership enterprises accounted for 32.6%, which was basically the same as in 2014. The rankings of the decline in the prosperity index are foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan holding companies (43.3 percentage points), private holding companies (22.4 percentage points), state-owned and collectively-held enterprises (9.8 percentage points), and other ownership enterprises. (0.1 percentage points). Among them, the decline of foreign capital and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan holding companies deserve special attention.
From the perspective of the basic elements of business operations, in 2015, except for environmental factors, the prosperity index of all basic business elements was lower than that of 2014. Among them, the order was only 17.8%, a significant drop of 21.6 percentage points compared with 2014; the operation was 31.2%, a slight decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared with 2014; the cost was 47.4%, a slight increase of 2.8 percentage points compared with 2014 (The only index that has rebounded); the environment is 57.8% (the only index that shows expansion), down 4.5 percentage points from 2014. It is not difficult to see from the above sub-index that the shortage of orders is the most prominent contradiction affecting the operation of the industry, and the specific value of the order index (17.8%) reflects that the order boom has been extremely contracted.
The expected index for 2016 is 38.2%, a significant decrease of 9.4 percentage points compared with 2014, reflecting the fact that industry companies are generally not optimistic about the situation next year.
2. Market changes and basic characteristics
Since the global financial crisis, the domestic machine tool consumption market and the economic operation of the industry have experienced great ups and downs, which is a process of ups and downs. Below we select three typical sub-sectors to briefly review this process from two different perspectives.
First of all, it is the process of change in the metal processing machine tool consumer market. This process is divided into two major phases, namely the rapid growth phase in 2010 and 2011, and the stagnation and continuous decline phase from 2012. Among them, the stagnation and decline stages also clearly formed three steps (2011-2012, 2013-2014, 2015-present). This is basically consistent with our market experience.
Second, it is the process of change in the consumer market of metal cutting machine tools. The metal cutting machine industry is the industry's largest and most prominent industrial field in the machine tool industry. From the perspective of the trend of change, the process of change in the consumption market of Jinchee machine tools is basically the same as that of Jinjia Machine Tool, except that it has a larger change.
Then, it is the process of change in the consumer market of metal forming machine tools. From the perspective of changing trends, the consumption of metal forming machine tools is significantly different from that of Jinjia machine tools and gold cutting machine tools. It is roughly represented by three different stages, namely the rapid growth phase in 2010 and 2011, the steady growth phase in 2012-2014 and the significant decline phase in 2015. This market trend explains the operating structure differentiation of the two main types of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools in recent years, and also reflects the background situation of the metal forming machine tool boom index in 2015 dropped by 30.4 percentage points compared with 2014.
Finally, it is the process of change in the consumer market. From the perspective of the trend of change, the trend of the consumption and consumption market has different characteristics compared with the machine tool. The trend is roughly in three stages, namely the high-speed growth stage in 2010 and 2011, and the basically stable stage in 2012-2014. And a significant decline in 2015. This trend also confirms the background reason for the 2015 GDP decline index to fall by 29.3 percentage points from 2014.
In addition, from the perspective of the import of machine tool products, it can also reflect the changes in the Chinese machine tool consumption market in recent years.
From the recent changes in the import growth rate of metal processing machine tools (including metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools) in the Chinese market in recent years, the overall trend of the change of the metal cutting machine tool and the machine tool is the same, while the import trend of the metal forming machine tool is different. Overall, the situation reflected by the growth rate of machine tool imports is basically consistent with the trend of the machine tool consumption market analyzed before.
Judging from the changes in the growth rate of the gauges in recent years, although the trends of cutting tools and gauges are different, they are also in line with the trend of the consumer market.
In recent years, the total consumption of the Chinese machine tool market has been decreasing. This is a fact and it is very obvious. But this is only one aspect of changes in market demand. If you only see this aspect, it is definitely not comprehensive and not objective. At the annual meeting at the end of 2012, the association once summarized the basic characteristics of this round of market changes into two aspects, namely: “the total demand has been significantly reduced, and the demand structure has accelerated and upgradedâ€. The market changes over the years have fully validated this generalization, and the reduction in total volume and the speed of structural upgrades have exceeded our expectations.
In general, the essential characteristics of market changes are structural. Taking the gold cutting machine with the most obvious market changes as an example, the reduction in quantity is also structural. If compared with 2011, the peak of market demand, the production and sales of ordinary machine tools have dropped to 30% or even 20%. Similarly, if compared with 2010, the peak of market demand, the production and sales of major machine tools have dropped to 30% or even 20%. At the same time, small vertical machining centers for smart phone casing processing are experiencing short-term explosive growth.
Specifically, we can generalize the main direction of market demand structure upgrade to three aspects, namely, automated set, customized order and general shift upgrade. Regarding the main direction of the above structural upgrades, everyone has a personal feeling in the market, and there is no need to explain them here. However, it is worth noting that the above-mentioned demand structure upgrade direction is exactly the opposite of the long-term inherent advantages of China's machine tool manufacturing industry. Our most prominent advantage or the best-selling housekeeping skills is to manufacture low-end standard general-purpose stand-alone products in large quantities, and the shortest board we are not good at is precisely to provide a package solution according to customer's specific requirements. Therefore, as the upgrading of demand structure continues to accelerate, the contradiction between supply and demand mismatches becomes increasingly prominent.
The changes in the composition of imported machining centers in a certain user field in recent years can also prove the fact that the demand structure of China's machine tool market is accelerating. It is worth noting that the proportion of goods in the import processing center below 4 axes in this user sector has dropped from 51% in 2011 to 22.2% in 2014. In just 3 years, the data has dropped by nearly 30%! Of course, there are factors for the continuous improvement of the replacement capacity of domestic machining centers, but it is undeniable that the machine tool demand structure in this field is upgrading quickly.
3. Industry economic operation in 2015
2015 is undoubtedly a year in which the entire industry is under greater downward pressure. Compared with the overall downturn of previous years, the industry economic operation in 2015 also showed the following new features, namely, the decline has been expanded again, the downside sector has expanded comprehensively, the domestic and foreign trade has declined, and the profitability of the whole industry has continued to deteriorate.
First of all, from the perspective of industry production and sales scale, the decline in the economic performance of the industry in 2014 has been greatly narrowed. Among them, metal processing machine tools fell by 1.1% year-on-year, the decline was significantly narrowed by 8.7 percentage points; the gauges were flat year-on-year. In 2015, the situation is different. It is expected that metal processing machine tools will fall by 8.6% year-on-year, with a significant increase of 7.5 percentage points. It is expected that the number of tools will decrease by 4.8% year-on-year, the first negative growth in 6 years (2009 growth rate is -22.8%). ).
Secondly, from the perspective of the downside, the industry downturn in 2015 has affected almost all industries (except for abrasives only). In addition to the metal cutting machine with the earliest down and the largest downside, the metal forming machine tools and measuring tools began to fall in 2015, and the declines in functional components and numerical control systems were significantly expanded.
Third, from the market target, the industry downturn in the past few years is mainly in the domestic market, but the export market has also maintained a growth trend, but this situation has changed in 2015. From January to October 2015, except for the CNC system, the export of the other seven sub-sectors of the whole industry was negative. It is estimated that the annual export of metal processing machine tools will decline by 8.8% year-on-year in 2015, the first negative growth in 6 years (-33% in 2009); the annual export of construction tools decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, also the first negative growth in 6 years (2009) The annual growth rate is -14.2%).
Finally, from the perspective of industry profit levels, due to the economic downturn for several consecutive years, the operating conditions of some industrial enterprises have tended to deteriorate. From January to October 2015, the total profit of all eight sub-sectors in the industry was negative, and the decline was large. Among them, the total profit of metal cutting machine tools by industry decreased by 154.9% year-on-year! The total profit of machine tool accessories, measuring tools and numerical control devices by industry fell by 91%, 45.4% and 35.7% respectively. In the past two years, the loss of the whole industry has not been lower than 40%, and even in individual months it has reached 50%!
Incidentally, among the many factors affecting the economic operation of the industry in 2015, the changes in the output of domestic automobiles and smart phones have had a significant impact on the economic downturn of the industry.
Overall, 2015 is a very difficult year in the industry development process.
Second, the basic estimate of the situation next year
Comprehensive analysis of various aspects, especially the 2016 Politburo meeting (December 14) and the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference (December 18-21), the 2016 economic work guidelines and policy ideas, combined with machine tools The basic characteristics of the manufacturing industry, our basic estimate of the industry development expectations for 2016 can be summarized into two sentences, that is, “the positive prospects are promising and the transformation pressure is increasingâ€. A brief analysis is as follows:
1, good prospects can be expected
As we all know, the central link of China's macroeconomic regulation and control over the years has been to grasp the rough balance between stable growth and structural adjustment. We have noticed that since the end of last year, despite the continuous reform of structural adjustment measures, as the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, especially the continuous decline of the real economy, steady growth is increasingly rising to the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control. In fact, since late November last year, the Chinese economy has entered a new round of steady growth cycle, which is marked by the re-use of major monetary policy tools after more than two years, in less than a year ( From November 22, 2014 to October 24, 2015, the Bank implemented six interest rate cuts and five RRR cuts in a high-density manner, increasing liquidity from two aspects: currency price (rate reduction) and monetary aggregate (reduction). The policy intensity is not strong. We have noticed that this round of high-intensity monetary policy implementation is very clear in support of the development of the real economy. But looking back now, it should be said that the effect of the policy is limited, at least its support for the real economy is significantly weaker than the implementation of the monetary policy in 2012. It is worth noting that by November 2015, the growth rate of industrial added value has fallen to 6.1%, lower than the third quarter GDP growth rate (6.9%). This is a situation that has never happened in years!
Not only that, but as the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, the structural contradictions of the economy are more prominent, and the risk of economic operations is also rising. The specific performance is that the financial market is rising, while the real economy is languid. At the same time, the risk of bubbles in the financial sector and the risk of instability in the real economy are rising significantly.
The current situation is that due to the widespread overcapacity in manufacturing and high real estate inventories, investment demand is seriously insufficient, and the continued sluggish investment will inevitably lead to further downward pressure on the economy, which makes the contradiction of overcapacity more prominent. . This seems to form a loop of loops that interlock with each other and restrict each other. The increased monetary liquidity outside the circle can not enter this cycle of circles to play an active role, can only form an ineffective loop outside the circle, and at the same time increase the risk of bubbles in the financial market.
It is not difficult to conclude that in the context of widespread overcapacity, the fiscal and monetary policies that focus primarily on expanding demand are already very limited, and in this case, further stimulus demand may make the problem worse. Therefore, it is necessary to re-recognize the main contradictions of the Chinese economy at this stage and moderately adjust policy ideas.
On November 10th, the Central Finance and Economics Leading Group meeting emphasized: "While moderately expanding aggregate demand, we will focus on strengthening supply-side structural reforms and focus on improving supply quality and efficiency." On December 14, the Central Political Bureau meeting pointed out: "We will focus on strengthening structural reforms and improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system while appropriately expanding aggregate demand." The Central Economic Work Conference, which just concluded, further emphasized: "We must pay more attention to supply-side structural reforms."
The proposal of structural reform on the supply side is a major innovation that adapts to the new normal of economic development, attracting widespread attention and positive response at home and abroad, because it marks the deepening of the understanding of the main contradictions of the Chinese economy at the decision-making level and the overall grasp of the Chinese economy. It is more scientific and accurate, and it also marks a major adjustment of China's macroeconomic regulation and control.
The Politburo meeting and the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference also made the key points to grasp the specific deployment of the annihilation war. In 2016, we must concentrate on completing the five major tasks, namely, de-capacity, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation. Short board. These tasks are specific to the supply-side structural reforms and are closely related to the machine tool industry.
According to the idea of ​​structural reform on the supply side, the above-mentioned loop cycle can be solved. The solution is to solve the problem from the excess capacity in the circle. Although the settlement process is definitely difficult and risky, it is the fundamental way to solve the problem. If we can overcome the short-term pain and truly solve the aforementioned cycle cycle, the new driving force for China's economic growth will be restored. This is the main basis for the estimation of the “good prospects for the futureâ€.
2. Increased transformation pressure
Combining all aspects of information, we can already see clearly that 2016 is not only a key year for industry restructuring, but also a year in which the industry is facing more downward pressure. At least two factors support this estimate. First, the actual trend of the national economic operation, and second, the policy orientation of macroeconomic regulation and control next year.
One of the distinguishing features of the machine tool manufacturing industry is its close relationship with fixed asset investment. In recent years, the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment has shown a continuous downward trend. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society has been declining since 2010. Among them, the growth rate of real estate investment has been declining since 2011; and the relatively lagging growth rate of manufacturing investment. From 2012 onwards, it has continued to decline (synchronized with the market and operation of the machine tool industry). By the end of October 2015, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society had fallen to 10.2%, of which the growth rate of manufacturing investment fell to 8.3%, and the growth rate of real estate investment fell to an ultra-low level of 2%. Such a low level of investment growth is the most direct cause of the downturn in the machine tool industry.
Stable growth must be stable investment. The most urgent task is to curb the momentum of sustained decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment. To achieve this goal, it is certainly not enough to rely solely on government-led infrastructure investment to sing a one-man show. It is necessary to effectively curb the growth of manufacturing and real estate investment. Rapidly decline momentum and regain growth momentum. To do this, we must face up to the seriousness of manufacturing overcapacity and high real estate inventories. This is a historical barrier that cannot be bypassed. According to the deployment of the Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, resolving overcapacity in manufacturing and digesting real estate inventories will serve as two key points for economic work in 2016, and we must concentrate on breaking through. However, we cannot expect these jobs to be completed overnight, and we cannot expect to see results in the same year. Therefore, we estimate that the growth rate of fixed asset investment will continue to decline next year, at least in the first half of next year, which will definitely impose further downwards on the machine tool consumption market. pressure.
We must note that the proposal of the structural reform task on the supply side marks a major adjustment in the economic thinking of the decision-making level and the focus of work. This will inevitably bring many changes at the policy and operational levels. Undoubtedly, these adjustments and changes mean new environmental changes for our industry and the entire real economy, namely, the relatively weak demand-side stimulus intensity, and the more determined and more aggressive supply-side structural reforms. On the one hand, environmental changes will bring long-term benefits to the development of the industry, and on the other hand, it will inevitably bring about a certain degree of short-term pain. Affected by this, there is still the possibility of further slowdown in economic growth. Therefore, we must be prepared to withstand the downward pressure of thought and action.
We must also see that there may be some new highlights in the market in 2016. For example, the implementation of the strategy of going global and the Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure construction projects such as the construction of railways in the central and western regions will first drive the market recovery of high-speed rail and electric power (including nuclear power) equipment; for example, it will be driven by the demand-side policy in October (small displacement). The automobile purchase tax was halved. In October this year, the automobile production and sales volume rebounded remarkably. In November, the production and sales volume reached a record high, among which the new energy vehicles grew rapidly. The State Council’s December 2nd proposed full implementation of coal-fired units before 2020. All of these more precise industrial policies will inevitably lead to an increase in market demand in the corresponding fields, such as low emissions and energy-saving renovation.
Third, the company's concerns and points of view 1, the main focus of entrepreneurs
Based on the feedback from the questionnaire survey, the Association made some statistical analysis on the outstanding problems, countermeasures and policy recommendations faced by the company. Although these situations and analysis are inevitably limited by the sample structure of the questionnaire and the content design of the questionnaire, they also reflect to a considerable extent the main concerns of the industry entrepreneurs in the context of the current industry downturn, which is now introduced. Everyone's reference.
Questionnaire reflection and statistical analysis show that there are 280 outstanding problems reflected by enterprises in the current situation, of which there are two main types of problems (accounting for 87.9%). The first category is four external problems: including insufficient market demand, competition for similar products abroad, user default or payment ability decline, market disorder, and unfair competition. The second category is three internal problems: including the capital chain. Tension, high internal costs and lack of talent. The most prominent problems in the above-mentioned problems accounting for more than 60% are: insufficient market demand (25.7%), tight capital chain (15%), excessive internal costs (12.5%) and competition with similar foreign products (10.7%). Based on this analysis, the main energy of the entrepreneurial group in the current situation is invested in orders and funds.
Questionnaire reflection and statistical analysis also show that there are 384 countermeasures adopted by enterprises in the current situation, of which 10 of the three main measures (accounting for 90.9%): First, increase revenue and reduce expenditure, including controlling costs, strengthening management, Reduce staff and increase efficiency and digest inventory; secondly, expand market share, including market segment development, increase market development investment and strengthen export business; third, increase enterprise competitiveness, including talent team, R&D investment and quality control. The most important measures accounting for more than 60% of the above measures are control costs (17.2%), enhanced market segments (13.5%), enhanced management (13%), enhanced quality (10.4%) and increased R&D investment (8.1). %). Reflecting the main focus of the entrepreneurial group is the increase in funds, orders and competitiveness.
The questionnaire reflection and statistical analysis also show that under the current circumstances, the company has proposed 51 policy recommendations to the government, of which the main policy recommendations have 5 categories in 5 categories (accounting for 82.4%): First, policy support, including state financial subsidies and government. Procurement tilt; followed by lowering corporate costs, including tax and financing policies; and finally creating a level playing field.
2, some views
As mentioned above, mainly due to the limitation of the structure design of the questionnaire content, the above-mentioned main concerns of industry entrepreneurs are limited to the concern of current business operations, and can not fully reflect the strategic thinking of the industry entrepreneurs on the long-term development of enterprises. Regarding the latter, we have the following views to discuss with you.
1) Preparation for long-term transformation adjustment
The Central Economic Work Conference put forward: "Strategically adhere to a protracted war and tactically fight against annihilation." This is the fundamental guiding principle for our industrial transformation and adjustment. Practice has proved that both the structural adjustment of China's economy and the transformation and upgrading of China's machine tool and tool manufacturing industry are unprecedented great undertakings in history. Therefore, it will not be done through short-term efforts, and it will take a long and arduous effort to gradually realize . Adjusting the transformation not only needs to overcome the long-term thinking and behavioral inertia, but also overcome the strong resistance generated by the adjustment of the interest pattern, and we must continue to explore many new things that we are not familiar with.
What is the biggest difference between "Made in China 2025" and many previous programs and plans? I think the biggest difference is the return of rational spirit! "Made in China 2025" has made a scientific and rational analysis and judgment on the gaps in our existence. Therefore, we have a full understanding of the long-term and arduous nature of the strategy of manufacturing a strong country, and thus we have formulated a "three-step" strategy. planning.
To achieve the goal of manufacturing a strong country, we need a scientific spirit, an honest attitude, we must lay a solid foundation, rely on continuous accumulation, and accumulate steps and even thousands of miles. Need to overcome impetuousness and anxiety, not fever, do not follow the trend, really calm down to do things.
It is good to overtake a corner, and a subversion is more fascinating, but that is a very small probability event. More importantly, we can't just see the excitement and excitement of overtaking and subverting the moment, and ignore the long-term retreat of the people, the accumulation and reserve of obscurity.
The situation is already clear, and we must be prepared for long-term adjustment and transformation. Because only in this way, our strategy and actions can be rational and scientific, so that the effect can be solid and effective. Otherwise, what "smart manufacturing" and what "manufacturing a strong country" can only be castles in the air.
2) Shrinking the front line and strengthening the depth should be our basic strategic choice
Looking now, "the total amount of demand is significantly reduced, and the demand structure is accelerating and upgrading" is by no means a short-term market feature. In such a market context, the horizontal contraction front and the vertical reinforcement of depth should be our correct strategic choice. Originally, our strength was insufficient, and we were not satisfied with the new market environment. At this stage, we are obviously weak. In this case, the strategy should be to concentrate the superior forces and focus on destroying the "enemies". Chairman Mao has long been Made an example for us. On the other hand, if in the current situation, it is still blindly attacking, it can only lead to failure due to the dispersion of forces. To make a strategy, it must include the choice of advancement and retreat. Otherwise, it cannot be a good strategy.
3) Need to do some fundamental structural adjustments
The provision of structural reform on the supply side is also highly targeted to the machine tool manufacturing industry. Because in our case, the contradiction between "mismatch between supply and demand" is very prominent, and it is urgent for the industry itself to continuously deepen structural adjustment.
As previously analyzed, the main direction of the upgrading of China's market demand structure includes three aspects. That is, automated sets, customized orders and popular shift upgrades. Looking at it now, these directions are not short-term, because these directions are inevitable requirements for technological advancement and industrial upgrading in the user field. The requirements corresponding to the above upgrade direction are precisely the weakest shortcomings of most of our enterprises. Our housekeeping skills are more manifested in the production of low-end universal standard single-machine products in large quantities. Accordingly, Inside the enterprise, there is a set of long-term resource allocation structure system (organization, manpower, operation mechanism, distribution principle, etc.) that is compatible with such housekeeping skills. The performance of the enterprise in the market is not suitable, and it is essentially the internal resource allocation of the enterprise. The structural system is not suitable. Therefore, it is necessary to make a fundamental reconstruction of the internal structural system of the enterprise according to the changing characteristics of the market, in order to gradually solve the problem of mismatch between supply and demand. On the other hand, if you don't touch the outdated structure of the company, it is definitely not enough to work hard on the work. It will always feel powerless.
4) It is time to plan the export market from a strategic perspective.
Three years ago, I once analyzed the export situation of the industry. I remember that the judgment I got at that time was three words, namely, "small, low, and scattered." “Small†refers to small scale. Here, it refers more to the small scale of domestic sales. I remember that the export volume of the whole industry only accounted for about 10% of the total output in the past (has been greatly improved in recent years); "It means that the structure level is low, which is in stark contrast to imports. Of the total imports, more than 60% are machine tool hosts, followed by functional components and CNC systems. In the total export volume, the host only accounts for about one-third of the total, and the product structure level is low. About 50% of the exports are abrasives and measuring tools, in which the abrasive and low-end measuring instruments and cutting tools occupy A large share; “scatter†means that the market target is dispersed and the concentration is low. We often hear that some companies promote their products are exported to dozens of countries and regions around the world, but in fact there is not much export volume. There is still a prominent problem in the export of machine tool industry. That is, a considerable number of enterprises are still at the level of guerrilla warfare, that is, in the tactical state of “playing and winning, playing without winningâ€. Therefore, my research conclusion is that there is still a lot of room for growth in the export market of our industry.
What I want to say is that it is time to plan and build a strategic level for the export market of the industry. The main reasons are twofold. First, China's opening up has begun to shift from the stage of “introduction†to the stage of “going outâ€, and the momentum is very strong (Belt and Road, international capacity cooperation, AIIB, etc.) Second, a new round of manufacturing transfer is underway. The difference is that this round of transfer is transferred from China to other developing countries. This momentum is also very obvious. In this context, the status of the export market is particularly important, which is self-evident. Therefore, we need to plan and build export markets at a strategic level, and this is a very urgent task.
Abstract [Before the compilation] At the 7th executive director (expansion) meeting of the 7th China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association held on December 23, Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of the association, gave a speech entitled "Machine Tool Industry Market" Change and economic operation analysis &...
[Before the Compilation] At the 7th Executive Director (Extended) Meeting of the 7th China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association held on December 23, Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of the Association, made a speech entitled “The Machine Tool Industry Market Changes†And economic operation analysis report, comprehensive national and industry statistics and customs import and export data, expounding recent market changes and economic performance, making basic estimates for next year's situation, and sharing with the entrepreneurs present. Some views on the future of the industry. The full report is as follows.