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Analysts believe that in order to cope with the excessive decline in real estate investment growth, monetary policy needs to be further relaxed, but this is not a sufficient condition, that is, the easing of the currency may not necessarily bring the growth rate of real estate investment to stabilize; in order to cope with the decline of local government financial resources, the central government Finance should be more effective. Since May, fiscal expenditure has become more active, and further efforts are needed in the future. At the same time, reforms in the fields of public utilities and other areas that break monopoly and introduce private capital are expected to accelerate.
Domestic demand is still relatively low
The positive effect brought about by the steady growth policy is further reflected. The economy will continue to rebound in June. The industrial added value is expected to increase by 9%, and the growth rate will increase by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The credit will increase by 139.5 billion yuan over the same period of last year. The target of 9.5 trillion yuan is estimated to be 59.6% in the first half of the year, which is basically consistent with the expected credit control rhythm. The growth rate of M2 in June is expected to be 13.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month." Shen Wan analyst Li Huiyong It is believed that the economy is expected to continue to rise due to policy overweight.
"The effect of the 'micro-stimulus' policy is gradually emerging, and the economic recovery may be nearing the turning point in the short term." Hongyuan Securities analyst Chen Guanglei said that the industrial added value in March, April and May of 2014 was 8.8% and 8.7% respectively. 8.8%, industrial added value is expected to stabilize slightly in June. From January to May 2014, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 17.9%, 17.6%, 17.3% and 17.2%. It is expected that the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment will stabilize in the short term.
As for the judgment of economic trends, some optimistic voices have begun to appear in the market, but how long can the improvement of macro data last and how much improvement can be made, and the differences between the parties are still large.
From some meso data, the basis for current macro data improvement is not yet solid. According to business data, on April 1, the BPI of the Commodity Price Index was 890 points, compared with 896 points on June 30, and it continued to linger at the bottom since the second quarter. For example, the price of rebar (distributor) was 3,090 yuan/ton at the beginning of June, and fell below 3,060 yuan/ton at the end of the month; the price of anthracite was 941 yuan/ton at the beginning of June and fell below 920 yuan/ton at the end of the month; (East China) was 319 yuan / ton at the beginning of June, and fell to 315 yuan / ton at the end of the month.
The Essence Securities Research Report stated that the Chinese economy was in a stalemate with the recovery of external demand and weak domestic demand in the second quarter. The apparent increase in export growth and the sharp expansion of the trade surplus clearly demonstrate the role of exports in driving the economy. The HSBC PMI sample covers a large number of export-oriented enterprises in the southeastern coastal areas, and is more sensitive to the improvement of exports. However, domestic investment demand is still weak, reflected in the growth rate of cement and steel and weak prices. In terms of capital decomposition, the government's micro-stimulus may support the economy, but it may not completely offset the decline in real estate and manufacturing investment. In addition, the expected improvement in microeconomic entities is still not obvious.
Economic pressure in the third quarter
Analysts believe that the economic growth rate in the second quarter may be close to the first quarter, but the economic growth rate in the third quarter may fall. The downward pressure on the growth rate of real estate investment is expected to be further revealed. Last year, the base was relatively high, and economic growth faced certain pressure.
Haitong Securities analysts said that from the demand side, the demand since the second quarter, especially the most relevant investment demand for industrial products, has not fallen further, but it is still at a low level. In the context of temporary demand stability, the price is sluggish mainly due to the pressure on the supply side. The growth rate of finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises has continued to rise this year. The inventory-to-sales ratio is a high point in recent years and is significantly higher than that in 2013. These reveal that the current overall inventory situation is not optimistic, worse than the same period last year.
Minsheng Securities analysts believe that the decline in real estate sales area will be transmitted to real estate investment, which will be further revealed in the third quarter. It is not excluded that the growth rate of real estate investment in individual months may fall below 10%. Considering that the third quarter of last year was a high point in the annual economy, there will be greater pressure to maintain a 7.5% economic growth rate in the third quarter. The data show that from January to May, the national real estate development investment was 3,073.9 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 14.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the first four months; the commercial housing sales area was 360.7 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year. - Expanded by 0.9 percentage points in April.
Analysts believe that in order to prevent the economy from experiencing excessive exhaustion after a short-term recovery, the policy of steady growth needs to be further increased. Taking power generation as an example, due to the high base effect, the coal consumption growth rate in late June has already dived, and it is expected that it will be less optimistic in July and August. Assume that the growth rate of power generation in the second half of 2014 is the historical average level between 2008 and 2013. The power generation growth rate in July and August will drop sharply. It may fall to 4.8% in July and may fall further to 4.3% in August. .
Guotai Junan analysts said that fundamentals have stabilized since late March, mainly due to two factors: first, the rebound in infrastructure investment driven by fiscal expenditure expansion and monetary policy easing, and second, the slow recovery of the world economy and the export improvement driven by the devaluation of the renminbi. In terms of the recent economic situation, the weak recovery of exports in the third quarter is difficult to make up for the huge gap left by the housing market depression. The drag on real estate sales is obviously more drag on consumption, investment and production. The housing market depression has led to a decline in consumption, real estate investment and related manufacturing investment. Land sales revenue and real estate taxation will drag down local infrastructure investment.
Reform is the only way out
Looking forward to the whole year, to achieve the economic growth target of about 7.5%, it seems inevitable that steady growth will continue to increase. Analysts believe that local governments have begun to promote some key projects, and the problem of achieving growth targets is not big. The economy is expected to be close to the bottom line in the second half of the year.
Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, expects that the relaxation of monetary policy needs to be continued, especially the financing conditions of real estate need to be improved. This is only a necessary condition to prevent the rapid decline of real estate investment. In terms of fiscal policy, the central government has been active since May this year, and further efforts are needed in the second half of the year.
Xu Gao said that in the past two years, although the tone of China's fiscal policy is nominally "positive," the actual situation is far from this. At a time when fiscal revenue growth is weak, the fiscal balance of the Treasury is growing rapidly, which only shows that fiscal expenditure has fallen even more. This conservative fiscal policy is a major cause of the local debt problem. In the case of limited financial resources, local governments can only raise funds through the establishment of local government financing platforms. When financing by the financing platform, the mismatch of the source of funds and the nature of the project, the inversion of the project return rate and capital cost, and the risk of a debt crisis are formed. Fiscal policy should be more responsible and take over the financing responsibility of infrastructure investment.
Guotai Junan research report shows that in 2014, the local available financial resources decreased by 1.2 trillion yuan compared with 2013. In the long run, the future transfer of consumption tax for local taxes can solve the capital needs of 80-100 billion yuan, and the opening of municipal bonds can solve the capital needs of 50-100 billion yuan, but the consumption tax reform plan will be announced in the second half of the year, implemented in 2015, and revised the budget. The law and the full implementation of municipal bonds will take at least half a year.
Shen Wan analyst Li Huiyong said that in addition to steady growth, reforms that have been included in the plan this year but are not yet obvious are worthy of market attention. Key areas such as public utility reform, state-owned enterprise reform, factor price reform, fiscal and taxation system reform, and financial reform are expected. Accelerate. Among them, the reform of public utilities and the reform of state-owned enterprises correspond to specific sectors and targets, and it is worthwhile to dig deep into the value of investment. For example, public utility reform means breaking the monopoly and introducing private capital, and related companies will usher in development opportunities; state-owned enterprise reform means that some listed companies may get opportunities for quality assets injection.
Guotai Junan analysts said that reform is the only way out. The Chinese economy will be "really reformed, slightly stimulated, and revived" and will not "fake reforms, really stimulate, and collapse." 
Abstract The effect of the steady growth policy is emerging. The recent macro data has gradually improved, but the economy in the third quarter is facing certain pressures to maintain the growth rate in the first half of the year: First, the growth rate of real estate investment may decline further. Second, the base number is higher last year. Third, local financial resources may become stable growth. ...
The effect of the steady growth policy is emerging. The recent macro data has gradually improved, but the economy in the third quarter is facing certain pressures to maintain the growth rate in the first half of the year: First, the growth rate of real estate investment may decline further. Second, the base number is higher last year. Third, local financial resources may become the constraint of steady growth. Indicators, brokerage reports that the local government's available financial resources fell by about 1.2 trillion yuan this year.