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TC/RC is the cost paid by the mine to the smelter, reflecting the amount of copper supplied in the coming year. The Chilean Minister of Mines said in London yesterday that the country raised its 2013 copper production forecast. Copper production this year is expected to be around 5.7 million tons (5.53 million tons in July), an increase of nearly 5% from last year and a record high. With the increase in the production of copper mines in 2014, it is optimistic that production will increase by nearly 10%, and demand growth will continue to slow down, which will lead to an increase in global copper surplus.
According to the latest estimates of the International Copper Research Organization (ICSG), the global refined copper market has a seasonally adjusted oversupply of 183,000 tons in the first half of this year. The increase in excess is accompanied by a decline in copper inventories in bonded warehouses in Shanghai, which is the act of switching from hidden stocks to dominant stocks. However, from the spot market, whether it is the European spot copper premium, the Chinese bonded warehouse copper premium or the Shanghai property trade copper premium, it has shown a relatively stable change, and even some time periods are still stable and rising, no obvious signs of copper surplus are found. The price drop is mostly due to expected speculation; if the copper in the first half of the year is really as surplus as the data, we have reason to believe that this part of copper once again enters the “easy to enter†warehouse or other “black holeâ€, so that the market “feels†Less than this pressure, although it does exist. With the surge of copper mines in the future, the supply chain will be “balancedâ€, and the smelter will release capacity again due to the increase in TC/RC costs. When this “balance†cannot be maintained at some time in the future, the price will usher in sustainability. Pressure, but this situation is unlikely to come at the end of 2013, but it needs to be guarded.
At present, copper prices are in a dilemma. The following are some of the main supporting factors: First, China’s economic stabilization is obvious, and all data are performing well. Second, in 2014, refined copper long-term premiums will rise sharply, directly increasing the overall spot price. Third, the market remains convinced that the US debt ceiling issue can be resolved smoothly.
In the short-term, there is no new trigger factor in the market, which will lead to price changes. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and wait for the final answer to the US debt ceiling issue.
Abstract With the arrival of the annual TC/RCs negotiations for copper concentrates, the prices of major copper smelters have been heard, and Chinese, Japanese and European companies seem to have achieved a relatively consistent goal – price increases. According to the latest statistics, 2014...
With the arrival of the annual copper concentrate TC/RCs negotiations, the prices of major copper smelting companies have been heard, and Chinese, Japanese and European companies seem to have achieved a relatively consistent goal - price increases. According to the latest statistics, in 2014, copper concentrate processing and refining costs were around $100, and continued to show a sharp rise.