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Abstract Since the introduction of the strong subsidy policy last year, the Japanese solar market has developed rapidly, and photovoltaic power plants have sprung up. Many institutions predict that Japan will become the world's largest new PV market this year. Japan’s later success is impressive, but at the same time, the grid facilities...
Since the introduction of the strong subsidy policy last year, the Japanese solar market has developed rapidly, and photovoltaic power plants have sprung up. Many organizations predict that Japan will become the world's largest new PV market this year. Japan’s later success is impressive, but at the same time, the backwardness of power grid facilities has become the biggest hidden danger in market development.

Hokkaido Market Center

Located in northern Japan, Hokkaido Island is the second largest island in Japan and is known for its beautiful natural scenery, fine food and rich seafood. Today, this tourist resort has a new business card, which is solar energy. Thanks to its unique geographical advantages, Hokkaido has become the center of the Japanese solar market.

Driven by incentive policies, Japan is expected to surpass China, Germany and other countries this year to become the new leader in the global solar market. This country with a very high population density has huge energy needs. After nuclear power is “frozen”, Japan is in urgent need of alternative energy sources. It is not surprising that solar energy can be developed in Japan. The reason why Hokkaido has become a hot spot for new solar power plants, especially large power stations, is mainly due to its low land cost. Abandoned industrial areas, idle racing tracks, and closed horse farms have all become the best locations for new solar power plants.

But such intensive project development has also brought some problems. Since the introduction of solar subsidies in Japan, more than a quarter of new projects have been concentrated in the Hokkaido region. Due to the relatively small population, Hokkaido's electricity demand accounts for only 3% of Japan's total electricity demand. How to transport a large amount of electricity to the prosperous areas with high power demand after these new projects are completed becomes a new challenge for the Japanese solar market.

From the current situation, Japan's power grid obviously does not have such capabilities. Compared with the amazing development speed of the solar market, the speed of grid renewal is very slow. In the face of the surge in solar power generation, power storage has also become a major problem.

Subsidy policy has a significant effect

As a country with almost no fossil fuels, nuclear energy was once the main force of Japan's electricity supply. Nuclear power accounted for 30% of the total. Japan had planned to increase this ratio to 50% in the future, but the "3 ̇ 11" earthquake Let it all become a bubble. The Japanese government then turned its attention to solar energy and introduced a series of subsidy policies. It turns out that this approach works well. In just one year, the Japanese solar market has jumped to the top of the world and is expected to become the world's largest new PV market this year.

Although the subsidy policy introduced by the Japanese government is applicable to other renewable energy sources, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (EMIT), 90% of Japan's 1662 megawatts of renewable energy installed capacity comes from solar energy. Other renewable energy sources, such as wind and geothermal, require more time and money to develop.

A good market environment has attracted a lot of investment, and even many non-energy companies such as Sharp, Kyocera, and Mitsui are developing solar projects. In July, Japanese financial institution Orix announced that its 21 MW solar power plant has been built in Hokkaido; Japan Trust Bank also announced that it will invest in a small solar project in Puhe County, Hokkaido, covering an area of ​​2.15 hectares. As a representative of anti-nuclear people, Sun Zhengyi, CEO of Softbank Group, Japan's largest software vendor, is an active investor in solar projects.

The Softbank Group currently has five renewable energy power plants in operation. The company also plans to build nine new power plants, three of which have already confirmed their addresses in Hokkaido. The total size of these projects exceeds 180 MW, but their grid-connected applications have not been approved. Sun Zheng publicly criticized this: "If the grid company can't make the electricity produced by our project connected to the grid, then these projects will be meaningless. This will bring a devastating blow to the Japanese solar market."

Manufacturers focus on the Japanese market

According to the Japan Photovoltaic Association, in 2012, Japan's PV module shipments increased by 271.3%. HIS forecasts that Japan's PV product shipments will increase by 120% this year, with a new installed capacity of 5 GW, making it the world's largest new PV market. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that Japan's new PV installations will reach 6.1 GW to 9.4 GW this year, making it the world's largest PV installer, with commercial and utility projects becoming the main growth points.

Japan has now become the most eye-catching growth point in the global PV market. Among the top 4 solar panel manufacturers in the world, three shipments exceeded expectations in the second quarter, an increase of 32%. Strong demand from the Asian market has become the main reason for the surge in product shipments.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) recently released a report that the company's PV module shipments in the second quarter reached 445 MW, exceeding the previous forecast of 380 MW to 420 MW. CSIQ is the world's fourth largest solar panel manufacturer last year. The other two companies listed in the top four, Yingli Energy (YGE) and Tianhe Solar (TSL) shipments in the second quarter also exceeded expectations.

CSIQ's shipment growth was mainly from Japan, and its PV module shipments to Japan in the second quarter were almost twice that of the first quarter. Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Stefan Linder said that Japan and China will become the world's largest solar market this year.

“In 2013, demand for PV products in Asia will account for more than half of global demand, and will increase significantly compared with 1/4 of last year. Although China’s PV companies have not yet subsided due to oversupply, the government is actively adopting Increase domestic demand to digest surplus production,” Stefan Linder said.

Yingli Group's shipments in the second quarter will increase by 23% to 24%, of which China's domestic shipments accounted for 23%, and in 2010 it was only 6%.

Stefan Linder said that China plans to increase solar installations by five times by 2015, and that the size of the Japanese solar market is also “nearly violent” by the stimulus.

Trina Solar is the world's third-largest manufacturer of solar products. According to a report released recently, shipments in the second quarter are expected to reach 630 MW to 660 MW, which is higher than the previous forecast of 500 MW to 530 MW. watt. The report believes that demand growth from Japan and India is the main reason for the company's second-quarter shipments higher than expected. Last year, Suntech Group, the world's second-largest solar product manufacturer, has yet to announce its second-quarter shipments.

CSIQ CEO Shawn Qu said in the report that the company has always supported a diversified development strategy, and Japan will become the market they are most concerned about in the future. “Japan has clearly emerged as the most sought-after emerging solar market.”

Slow grid construction

The development of the Japanese solar market is unstoppable, and while it is gratifying, some hidden concerns are gradually exposed. In April of this year, Hokkaido Electric Power Company said that its PV transmission system has received four times the capacity of its network application, and this situation has also appeared in other regions. As the amount of solar power continues to grow, Japan's power grid system is facing a severe test.

Japan's power system consists of 10 grids, but the connections between these grids are not smooth. Ten power companies have divided Japan into 10 small power markets. Almost every grid operates independently, with little power transmission and supply, even in neighboring regions. Different frequencies are also the main reason why the grids are difficult to connect: the three eastern grids including the Tokyo area use 50 Hz, and the other seven grids use 60 Hz. At present, only three frequency converters are in operation, and the power that can be converted is less than 1% of the entire grid.

According to the subsidy policy, power companies must purchase locally produced renewable energy, but the government also stipulates that in order to ensure the stability of power supply, enterprises have the right to restrict or even refuse to use part of renewable energy. A survey by the Japan Renewable Energy Association showed that 20% of renewable energy users said they would refuse to use excess supply of renewable energy, and 37% of users would limit this use.

There are also speculations that the grid is not the only reason for power companies to limit the purchase of renewable energy power. Another main reason is that they still have expectations for nuclear power restarts. A number of power companies, including Hokkaido Power Company, have asked the government to speed up nuclear power plant safety inspections and restart nuclear power as soon as possible.

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