Twelfth Five-Year Energy Development

In 2012, the long-awaited “12th Five-Year Plan” energy plan was finally published. The basic ideas for energy development in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” have been initially formed, and all development goals have basically emerged. This is the “12th Five-Year Plan” energy development. Set the tone.

In 2013, the only thing that remained unchanged was change, and the development of traditional energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas, after many years of tangling, had brought about tremendous changes in the industry. Will the development of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics usher in the long-awaited Spring after experiencing their respective winters? How will the changes in new and traditional energy sources affect people's lives?

After several screenings, this year selected six topics of common concern for the industry to conjecture, and interviewed authoritative experts in the industry to understand the energy 2013 in their eyes.

Photovoltaic policy is favourable, and gradually recovered in the second half of the year. Recently, policy information for supporting the photovoltaic industry has been gradually introduced. The total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” has also been raised. On October 26, 2012, the State Grid Corporation of China held a press conference to strengthen the distributed photovoltaic power generation and grid-connected services. It was proposed that in the future, it will provide system-planning, grid-connected testing, and debugging services for qualified distributed PV projects. The Ministry of Finance website also announced recently that in order to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, the central government recently allocated 7 billion yuan of funds to support the demonstration of 3157 megawatts of photovoltaic power generation applications.

As the policy continues to benefit, can China's photovoltaic industry be able to buck the trend?

Zhao Yuwen Vice Chairman of China Renewable Energy Society For the past two years, the photovoltaic industry has been relatively sluggish. In 2010, the growth rate of the international photovoltaic market has exceeded 140%, which is very strong for the entire industry, and the industry has expanded significantly. Since 2011 and 2012, the growth rate has decreased. Therefore, industrial expansion has led to the surplus of photovoltaic products. These surpluses have made the prices of photovoltaic products highly competitive and the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a downturn.

After a full two years of digestion, the situation of surplus products is drawing to a close. It is expected that after half a year, the photovoltaic industry will gradually recover its production capacity and will tend to be relatively stable. The warming of the industry will occur in the latter half of 2013. It is not sudden but rather a steady recovery.

The most important thing is policy support. The government is brewing some measures to promote the growth of the domestic photovoltaic market. Although these measures have not yet been implemented, we believe that in March this year, specific measures in this area will be gradually introduced.

For the expansion of the photovoltaic market, it cannot stop at the government's several principled opinions on the photovoltaic industry. I think this is not enough. It depends on whether the principled opinions are implemented in specific policies. I believe the government has already noticed and given special attention to new industries. This will lead to a relatively balanced development of the photovoltaic market and industrial manufacturing. This is particularly important for the recovery of China's PV industry in 2013.

Comment:

Starting from November 1, 2012, power grid companies will provide access system solution development, grid detection and commissioning services for no more than 6 MW distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, with no charge. The grid companies also purchased surplus power in full and supported distributed photovoltaic power generation to be distributed to low-voltage distribution networks. This led me to see that home photovoltaic power generation became possible, and we have turned from traditional electricity consumers to "power generation parties." I believe that the “warming up period” of PV will come early.

The commercialization model of electric vehicles New energy vehicles are entering a comprehensive policy support phase. China is increasing its support for new energy vehicles. Starting this year, China will allocate 1 billion to 2 billion yuan each year to support the industrialization of new energy vehicles. At present, the central government has a special subsidy policy for the development of new energy companies in some demonstration cities. The maximum subsidy for passenger vehicles is 60,000 yuan. At the same time, it is understood that Beijing has also formulated a corresponding subsidy policy. On the basis of the central government subsidy, Beijing Municipal Government will also subsidize 60,000 yuan.

In the face of many positives, when will the commercialization of electric vehicles mature?

Xie Zicon Deputy Director of the Energy Experts Committee of the China High-tech Industrialization Research Society In 2013, the development of electric vehicle subsidies and auto manufacturers' research and development of new energy vehicles will inevitably become the focus of industry attention.

In fact, the electric vehicle industry itself should receive more attention than EV vehicle products. The electric vehicle industry chain needs to form a horizontal force, and the development of a unified strategy should also be developed in advance.

In the future, the development of electric vehicles should adhere to the creation of a sustainable commercial platform for electric vehicles. This requires innovation in three areas.

First, leadership organization and mechanism innovation. At present, the “commanders” that promote the development of the electric vehicle industry are all part-time, and there is no leader in the innovation industry, which will have a great impact on the independent innovation of the electric vehicle industry. This is the foundation and a problem that needs to be solved.

Second, business model innovation. What is the supporting technology plan for electric vehicles? How is the market formed? How can a participating company profit? This is a question that needs to be studied.

Third, implement strategic innovations. We hope to establish a dedicated electric vehicle office in 2013 to ensure that every aspect of the electric vehicle industry goes hand in hand. In addition, relevant ministries also need to organize and coordinate, and all parties should strengthen close cooperation in order to realize the integrated electric vehicle business model.

Comment:

Personally, I think that car electrification is an important direction for the development of the automotive industry, and it is a long-term goal that can be achieved in the near future. At the current level of technology, reducing costs and increasing performance are difficult to achieve at the same time.

However, any new thing has a certain process of market development and development. The privatization of electric vehicles is definitely a trend.

Return to Rationality, Wind Power Operation Hours Increase Significantly In August of 2012, China has replaced the United States as the world’s largest wind power grid connection country. The national power grid has become the largest and fastest-developing power grid in the world, and the capacity of large power grids to operate large wind power is in the world. Leading level.

However, on December 18, 2012, the US Department of Commerce arbitrated anti-dumping tariffs on wind turbines made in China and imposed additional countervailing duties. The overcapacity of domestic production and the tariffs imposed by foreign countries have caused the wind power industry in China to fall into a predicament.

In the face of domestic favors and foreign concerns, what will China's wind power industry do?

Gu Weidong’s chief scientist of the wind power project of the “973” Program is the largest potential energy for China’s development of new energy, because its reserves are among the highest in the world. For China, a major economy with coal as its main energy source, It is of great significance to bring the comparative advantages of wind power into play and transform it into modern productive forces. After the efforts of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China has already upgraded the wind power industry from a globally backward position to one of the highest in the world. At present, our country is not only the largest country in the manufacture of wind turbines, but also the country with the largest installed capacity of wind power.

At present, China's wind power continues the development path of Europe and the United States, but China's energy structure and power load are significantly different from those of Europe and the United States. Therefore, as it is copied and imported into the operation mode without modification, it will lead to the development of wind power. On the one hand, China is a world-class wind power country. On the other hand, China's economic and social development urgently needs new types of wind energy and other renewable energy sources. The two are complementary and coordinated development. Therefore, it is the current major task to fully study how to achieve the above two goals.

In 2013, what Chinese wind power companies need to do is to "sinify" the advanced concepts and advanced technologies of European and American wind power industry in China's soil, and embark on a new development path for wind power in China, not only providing China with a large amount of green renewable energy, but also Achieve the sustainable development of a strategic new manufacturing industry.

In 2013, the development speed of the wind power industry will decline, but the effective operating hours will increase significantly each year. At present, China's wind power industry has accumulated a certain degree of development after 5 to 10 years. However, before there is no breakthrough in advanced technology, industrial development has already reached a bottleneck. In the next step, Chinese wind power workers should “localize” the advanced concepts of Europe and the United States and find new paths that are suitable for the development of wind power.

Comment:

As a Shanghai citizen, I feel deeply about the use of clean energy power generation, especially wind power. In June 2010, Shanghai Donghai Bridge Wind Farm was connected to the grid for power generation. That year happened to be the World Expo. Part of the electricity used at the meeting was sent by offshore wind power. In the past few years, some of the electricity used by our Shanghai residents was also wind power. After using clean electricity, we felt that the air was much better. If more clean power can be put into use, it can greatly ease the tension in China's power application, and at the same time, it is also conducive to energy conservation and environmental protection.

Energy price reform enters the critical stage In July 2012, China officially implemented ladder electricity prices; on November 21, 2012, Guangzhou officially implemented stepped water prices. The price reform of natural gas in December 2011 was conducted in Guangdong and Guangxi for more than one year. In December 2012, the “12th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas Development” issued by the National Development and Reform Commission proposed that the mechanism for the formation of natural gas prices will continue to be improved, and a natural gas price formation mechanism reflecting the degree of resource scarcity and changes in market supply and demand will be established.

China's energy price reform has entered a critical stage. The Party’s errands report puts forward: “Deepen the reform of resource product prices and taxes, establish a paid use system for resources and ecological compensation systems that reflect market supply and demand and resource scarcity, reflect ecological values, and intergenerational compensation.”

Are water and electricity and other resource products, which are closely related to people's lives, ushering in the “staircase era”?

Lin Boqiang Director of China Energy and Economic Research Center, Xiamen University For energy price reform, I expect natural gas reform in 2013 will further accelerate. Natural gas is China's most promising alternative to coal. In recent years, China has experienced rapid growth both in terms of total domestic gas consumption and its share in world gas consumption. With several natural gas pipelines in Central Asia, China, Russia, China and Myanmar starting to supply gas in recent years, China’s natural gas dependence on foreign countries will increase rapidly, and reforming the current natural gas pricing mechanism is imminent.

In addition, I think that in 2013 the new pricing mechanism for refined oil products may be introduced. A more sensitive refined oil pricing mechanism is beneficial to all parties in the medium and long term. It is now the best time for the new mechanism for the pricing of refined oil to be launched. It is recommended not to wait until the price of refined oil rises sharply. At this time, the reform will encounter more resistance. To reform, we must seize the opportunity to change as soon as possible.

It can be said that energy prices have reached a critical period of reform, and there are many aspects that need reform, and they need to be coordinated. Whether reform or not, transparent pricing mechanism is the key to win consumers' understanding. If there is no transparent pricing mechanism, besides uncertainty in investment and operation, it will also affect the sustainable development of the energy industry and increase energy costs. A reasonable and transparent energy price mechanism is not only to ease the financial burden of energy companies and solve the contradiction of the energy industry chain, but more importantly, to provide a relatively definite business environment for energy investment, and in particular to provide the expected energy investment for private and foreign companies. Financial security. The water and electricity price reform adopts a ladder price mechanism to solve the equity and efficiency problems of resource products.

Comment:

Resources, such as hydropower, oil and gas, are closely related to people's livelihood, and the formulation of a ladder price is an effective measure. For example, the introduction of the price ladder, to a certain extent, promoted the awareness of power conservation. It is hoped that the government can implement corresponding subsidy mechanisms at the same time as the energy price reform and reduce the burden on the people.

Smart grids to power new energy grids Since 2011, smart grid construction has moved from a pilot phase of planning to a comprehensive construction phase, and “intelligent” has become a normal requirement for grid construction. A group of smart substations, smart communities, and electric vehicle charging and switching stations have been completed one after another. The operation of the power grid has become more "smart". The citizens are more "intelligent" in using electricity, and energy efficiency has improved. The smart grid has accelerated the modernization of the city and made people's lives more economical, greener and more convenient.

How many new smart energy projects can provide support for new energy development?

Zhang Yibin Director of Smart Grid Institute of State Grid Energy Research Institute After several years of efforts, under the efforts of companies represented by the State Grid Corporation of China, with the participation of all parties, China’s smart grid theory, technology, practice, etc. Achievements that have attracted worldwide attention have been achieved, and the overall situation is at the leading international level. This also laid a good foundation for China's smart grid to go out and participate in the formulation of international standards.

At present, China’s government agencies have introduced initiatives to support smart grids. Power grid companies have actively promoted them, and China’s smart grid development is generally in an accelerated development stage.

In 2013, the development of China's smart grid will continue its development path in 2012. It will continue to make efforts in the fields of smart substations, electricity consumption information collection, electric vehicle intelligent charging and replacement service networks, and services for distributed new energy generation access. A group of smart grid technology integrated application projects will continue to implement and bring benefits.

The smart community has already achieved a breakthrough in technology. The speed with which it enters people's lives depends on people's acceptance of such new things. It also depends on the further optimization and improvement of the business model of the smart community. In 2013, the popularity of smart communities will go faster in more economically developed regions.

It can be foreseen that the smart grid construction will build more and better wind power and photovoltaic power generation for large-scale and decentralized development by constructing a strong, reliable, transparent and open grid system platform and cracking a series of new energy access and operation problems through the smart grid. Access and consumption provide a good physical basis and greater market acceptance space.

Comment:

In the future, cities will be smarter under the influence of large-scale trends. Only with a sound and intelligent infrastructure and a sustainable city can we maintain normal operation and vitality while accommodating a large population. Looking further, smart infrastructure is the top priority for the smart grid, which is the cornerstone of urban development, and secondly, the city's blood flow is smooth through energy-efficient transportation. As an ordinary citizen, I hope that the smart grid will come to life faster and make our life more intelligent and convenient.

Energy tariffs and stability are the keynotes Since January 1, 2013, China will impose an annual import tariff that is lower than the MFN tariff rate for 784 imported goods. The Ministry of Finance will improve the stability of export policies, reduce import tariffs on energy, resources, raw materials and other products, and impose lower tentative import tariffs on advanced technology equipment and key components. Motor vehicle production line robots, inverter modules for electric vehicles, battery systems for electric vehicles, and transmission and substation overhead lines, etc., have further reduced their import tariffs, becoming a major highlight of this tariff adjustment. In addition, the import tax rates for energy resources such as kaolin, mica sheets, ferrotungsten, and thorium have dropped further.

What does it mean to reduce tariffs for energy companies and what impact will they have on the industry?

Li Jian, Minister of Foreign Trade of the Institute of Foreign Trade, Institute of Foreign Trade, 2013 Export Policy can be summarized in terms of “stability”, including stabilizing export policy, tax, tax refund, exchange rate, export policy. Measures such as **, credit insurance, customs clearance, etc., create an enabling environment for foreign trade.

In recent years, on the basis of the promised WTO import tariffs, China has successively lowered tariffs on imports and exports in the form of tentative tariffs for many years. In the past, tentative tariffs only involved some small commodities, and the scale of reduction was limited. In the 2013 catalogue, products in various fields such as resources, energy, equipment, and life services were reduced, and some products were downsized from 15 The % is adjusted to 5%, which is close to zero tariff.

To lower the import tariff on energy resources products, the first is to better ensure the supply of domestic markets and meet domestic consumption. Second, due to the downward adjustment of import tariffs on energy and raw materials, expanding their energy supply channels and reducing the production costs of energy-consuming enterprises. Affected by tariff reduction, domestic energy companies will be subject to certain shocks, but this will help promote domestic energy industry competition.

In addition, the reduction of import tariffs on key equipment and component parts required for equipment manufacturing and strategic emerging industries is a manifestation of promoting domestic market competition, lowering production costs, improving product quality, and enhancing innovation capabilities, and more clearly accelerating China's industrial transformation and upgrading. The direction.

In recent years, the world economy has experienced a significant decline, and China’s trade environment has been severe. In 2012, China’s total value of imports and exports reached US$350.28 billion, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. Among them, the export value of $1,849.91 billion, an increase of 7.3%, was the lowest growth rate in the financial crisis in recent years. Foreign trade policies are also measures taken in response to the external environment, and they have a positive effect on China's economy.

A stable export policy also responds to the impact of trade protectionism on Chinese companies. In recent years, China's oil drilling pipes, oil pipelines, photovoltaic products, wind turbine towers and other products have been blocked. This phenomenon will not disappear within a short period of time. Some countries’ protectionism against domestic energy companies will be a long-term one. trend. Therefore, a stable export policy can, to a certain extent, help Chinese companies overcome pressure and prepare themselves for the opening of the domestic market.

Comment:

Lithium battery import tariffs will be significantly reduced next year, which may stimulate the cost reduction of electric vehicles. As a result, we can buy cheaper, better-performing electric vehicles. At the same time, we also hope that the country will introduce better equipment, stimulate the development of China's manufacturing industry, and build China's own Siemens.

1The photovoltaic policy favored frequent and gradually recovered in the second half of the year.

2 The wind power industry has returned to rationality and the operating hours have increased significantly.

3 China's nuclear power technology needs further research and development.

4 Following the nuclear accident in Japan, China’s nuclear power has been steadily restarted.

5 The grid companies purchased surplus power in full and supported distributed photovoltaic power generation to access the low-voltage distribution network.

6 The newly-built smart grid projects will provide support for the development of new energy.

7 At present, our country is not only the largest country in the manufacture of wind turbines, but also the country with the largest installed capacity of wind power.