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Every two months, more than a dozen bankers meet in Basel, Switzerland on Sunday evening to discuss issues and dinner on the 18th floor of a cylindrical building overlooking the Rhine.
This kind of dinner discussion about money and economy is not just academic. Sitting around the table is the president of the world's largest central bank. The countries they represent have a total annual GDP of more than $510 trillion, equivalent to the world. Three-quarters of the economic output.
Recently, the focus of this secret talk has been on the global economic woes, as well as radical measures taken by major central banks to manage their economies. Since 2007, the world's major central banks have injected more than $11 trillion into the world's financial system. Under the influence of the weak economic recovery process and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, major central banks have accelerated the pace of such measures. Currently, the world's largest central banks are planning to invest more in government bonds, mortgages and corporate loans.
In standard textbooks, their monetary strategy cannot be found. In fact, these central bankers are conducting a high-risk experiment that uses the academics of researchers and professors at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) between the 1870s and the 1980s. Results. Although many countries around the world, such as the United States, have failed to agree on fiscal policy issues – how to balance the relationship between tax revenues and expenditures in periods of low growth – central bankers have already opened their own path. This path does not depend on voters and politicians, and it is “connected†to frequent conversations and relationships back to the university age.
If these central bankers are right, they will help the global economy avoid falling into a longer period of economic stagnation and avoid repeating the measures that central banks made in the 1930s; but if they are wrong Then it is possible to "ignite" inflation or buy seeds for another financial crisis. In addition, if they fail, they may also bring the latest restrictions on central bank power and independence; these tools are considered critical in an emergency such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
"History will determine that they have done too little, is it too much? We don't know, because this is still a work in progress." Harvard University economics professor, "This time is different: 800 years of finance Kenneth Rogoff, one of the authors of This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, said. “The reason why they are taking risks is because it is an experimental strategy.â€
The Fed is currently implementing its “quantitative easing†program to buy mortgage-backed bonds at a rate of $40 billion a month, and issued a statement after the monetary policy-making meeting on Wednesday that the “distorted operation†plan expires at the end of the year. In the future, the bank will continue to purchase long-term US Treasury bonds, initially purchasing monthly long-term government bonds worth US$45 billion. The Bank of England has agreed to inject tens of billions of pounds of money into banks and businesses through banks. The European Central Bank is committed to controlling the cost of borrowing in countries seeking assistance, while the Bank of Japan, which faces pressure to withstand deflation, will buy 910,000 yen. US$1.14 trillion in government bonds, corporate bonds and stocks.
The so-called "Quantitative Easing" (QE) is a concept first proposed by Japan. Under the background of sluggish economy and sharp decline in bank credit, the Bank of Japan has zero interest rates (banking intervals) since March 2001. The further deepening of the policy of night lending rate mainly refers to the intervention of the central bank to increase the supply of basic money by purchasing medium- and long-term bonds such as treasury bonds after the implementation of zero interest rate or near zero interest rate policy, and to inject a large amount of liquidity into the market. Encouraging spending and lending has also been simplified to allow for indirect printing of banknotes.
On September 21, 2011, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to adopt the so-called “Operation Twistâ€, which is to extend the average maturity of its bond assets. It plans to buy 4000 before the end of June 2012. US$100 million of US Treasury bonds have a remaining maturity of between 6 and 30 years; they also sell the same amount of US Treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of three years or less. Subsequently, the plan was extended to the end of the year in June this year.
The goal of the central bank governors is to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate the stock market, thereby encouraging households and businesses to spend and invest. However, this method has not been tested on a global scale, and the central bank governors have been holding secret meetings this year to estimate their risks.
One day after the dinner meeting in June this year, Jaime Caruana, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), warned them. Caruana pointed out: "The major central banks have been caught in the middle and are forced to become the final policy makers. They are providing monetary stimulus measures on a large scale. If these emergency measures are too long, they may Bringing bad consequences."
Another worrying thing is that boosting the stock market and lowering credit costs will allow governments to postpone difficult policy decisions to fix problems such as budget deficits.
Those who have clear criticism of the actions of the central bank governors include the Bank of International Bank's economists, etc. The Basel-based organization is increasingly becoming a “collection ground†for discussions on the state of financial markets in the post-crisis era. Economists at the bank pointed out that in order to seek faster economic growth, major central banks have been "stretched to a fine" level.
“The major central banks are unable to solve the structural problems that exist in the economy,†said Stephen Cecchetti, head of the monetary department of the Bank for International Settlements. "We have been reiterating this view for the past few years and have even reached a point of boring."
The major central banks control the “switch†of the global money supply. When this “switch†is opened, the new funds flowing out of it will “heat†the economy, push down interest rates and drive down the unemployment rate, but at the same time will bring the risk of pushing up the inflation rate; on the other hand If this "switch" is turned off, then the interest rate and cooling economy will be raised, but at the same time it will play a role in suppressing prices.
The central bank governors have promised that once the global economy regains its foothold, they will close the “switch†quickly enough to prevent inflation in advance. But wanting to withdraw so much money at the right time can be a political and logistical challenge.
“We are all very aware that we are in an unusual environment, and for the policy 'weapons' we are using now, we have never had much experience in using this 'weapon' before.†Governor Charles Bean said in an interview.
Among governments, the central bank governor is one of the most detached people. If central bankers and private bankers go too close, there is a risk of making the market uneasy or giving traders an unfair advantage. In order to maintain independence, they will try to keep a distance from politicians.
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis at the end of 2007, the central bank governors have relied on each other to provide advice to each other. They have stopped the downward spiral of the world economy, pushed interest rates down to historical lows, and will also be in troubled banks. And the market has poured trillions of dollars, euros, pounds and yen.
Among the world's most powerful central banks, three central bankers are born in a building called the "E52", the "home" of the MIT Department of Economics. In the late 1970s, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi received their Ph.D. In the 1980s, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King taught there and shared an office with Bernanke.
Many economists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have a belief that the government can help the economy out of recession. In this view, major banks play a particularly important role, not only by setting interest rates, but also by using policy statements to influence public expectations.
At the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, these central bankers conceived some mathematical models and discussed their ideas in the seminar room and elsewhere. At the dinner meeting in Basel, they discussed pressing issues in the real world and had the power to propose solutions to these problems. They hold a two-day conference every year at the Bank for International Settlements, and it is part of the three-hour dinner meeting that often takes place. The central bank governors attending the dinner meeting came from the central bank of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the People's Bank of China, the Bank of India, the Central Bank of Mexico, the Central Bank of Brazil and other countries.
Nathan Sheets, an economist at Citigroup (C) and a former head of the Fed's international affairs department, said: "Everyone at the dinner meeting is a very important person in the crisis." He did not attend a dinner meeting when he was in the Fed, but he is familiar with such meetings.
In a room renovated by the Swiss construction company Herzog & de Meuron, which designed the "Bird's Nest" stadium for the Beijing Olympics, Bank of England Governor Kim En was responsible for leading the dinner meeting. The participants were surrounded by a round table and each had a designated seat.
“That is a way to get people to have a completely private conversation,†Jin said in an interview. "If you have your own ideas about how the central bank should consider the issue and what it is likely to need to do when a particular event occurs, then this is a very good practice."
According to people familiar with the situation, central bankers will start discussing serious topics after using appetizers, drinking red wine and chatting. Usually, Jin En will ask the central bank governors to talk about the prospects of their respective countries, and then others will ask questions later. Such meetings will not leave a summary or memorandum, and no other staff members other than the central bank governor will be allowed to enter the conference room.
The 18-member small group was previously known as the "Consultative Committee", which only issued a public statement, which was published in September this year with only two lines of official documents, promised to Looking for solutions to the interbank lending market, responded to allegations that some private banks had colluded to manipulate the Libor interest rate.
Libor rates provide support for trillions of dollars in derivatives contracts and are a vital standard for corporate borrowing rates around the world, linking various types of assets. Derivatives are unregulated financial instruments that are related to stocks, bonds, loans, currencies, and commodities, or to special events such as interest rates or weather changes, and whose function is to reduce the risk of loss of potential assets. The current global derivatives market totals $600 trillion, and trading activity in this market has been accused of being part of the cause of the recent financial crisis.
On Monday after the dinner meeting, the central bank governors will join the ranks of more central bankers, holding a meeting around a larger round table on the lower floor of the BIS building, and the staff will be seated. White feathered desk near the left.
“These meetings are a very important forum for understanding the state of the world,†said Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, who was also a participant in the Sunday dinner meeting. "People can speak freely."
Central bankers often take action with a common goal of bringing the world closer to full employment; but at other times, they will arbitrarily argue.
For example, in November 2010, the Fed launched a $600 billion bond purchase program, the so-called “quantitative easing†program. According to sources familiar with the situation, a few days later, New York Fed President William Dudley and Federal Reserve Vice-President Janet Yellen attended a weekend meeting in Basel. They were surprised by the anger caused by the Fed’s stimulating plan in developing countries. At the meeting, Dudley and Yellen spent most of their time explaining the Fed's actions, and other central bank officials expressed concern that the plan would lead to inflation or the influx of excess capital into their home markets.
"Every time the Fed takes the 'quantitative easing' measure, it will become a topic of discussion," Subara said. “All of us have to deal with the 'overflow' impact of our policies on other countries.†Basel is the place to express this concern, he said.
Since its inception in 1930, the status of the Bank of International Settlements has been broadened. The bank was established to deal with German claims after World War I. It became the center of discussion on bank capital regulations in the 1970s. In the 1990s, the Bank of International Settlements became the venue for central bank officials to discuss the global economy.
Under normal circumstances, the central bank governors will not formally coordinate actions, and Bernanke, Draghi and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will focus more on their own domestic The challenge. According to sources familiar with the situation, Shirakawa often warned other central bank officials at the Basel conference on the effectiveness of loose monetary policy. His embarrassment on this issue has made the Bank of Japan one of the problems of Japan’s election this Sunday. Shinzo Abe, the leading leader in the election, has promised to control the independence of the Bank of Japan and demand more radical measures. To end deflation.
However, although the central bank governors are arguing over how to revive the global economy, they have established a close friendship that is linked to managing economic growth and controlling financial stability. “A major secret of central bank cooperation is,†said Jin En. “You can pick up the phone (during the crisis) and reach an agreement on something very quickly.â€
This summer, the central bank’s “factions†maintained close ties, when they were preparing for a new round of monetary activism. On June 8, before the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held their respective monetary policy-making meetings, Bernanke and Jin En talked for half an hour on the phone. A few days later, Bernanke had a telephone conversation with Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who was appointed Kimn’s successor last month. Soon after, Bernanke called the Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer, a former professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a paper consultant to Bernanke.
On the morning of June 18, Bernanke called the Draghi and Jin En from the US Congress, and the three men evaluated the impact of the Greek election on the European financial system.
Among the world's major central bank governors, there are now two conflicting views. One is that the central bank has not taken enough measures to solve economic problems, and the other is that loose monetary policy lacks sufficient strength to help only statistics, but also There is a risk of triggering inflation or another financial bubble.
By August, the tension between these two positions was made public at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. Adam Posen, who recently completed a four-year term in the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, condemned the central bank's officials for not being able to take more steps to stimulate their economies because of "the taboos they imposed." He believes that the central bank should provide more help to weak markets such as US mortgages and European government bonds.
Athanasios Orphanides, who recently completed the term of the governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, holds the opposite view. He said that in the 1970s, the central bank sought to return the unemployment rate to a lower level in the 1960s, but they made a mistake, that is, to keep interest rates too low for too long. Levels that lead to inflation rather than full employment. If the central bank repeats this mistake, then "the disaster will follow the price (inflation)."
At the same time, Bernanke said he was worried that the current low interest rate policy is losing its effectiveness, and Jin En has recently expressed the same idea. Bernanke said that low interest rates may induce lower-than-expected business and consumer spending activities, while the government and the private sector are burdened with excessive debt.
"There are a lot of things that we don't understand," said former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn.
Bernanke sat quietly during the meeting, but he and other central bank governors were ready to launch a new round of currency "blitz."
A few days later, the European Central Bank announced that it would buy bonds from troubled EU governments; in exchange, these countries need to comply with fiscal austerity plans.
At the same time, the BIS economists are increasingly skeptical about the central bank, and they believe that the warnings about the credit bubble they issued before the financial crisis were ignored. “No one takes our warnings seriously,†said William White, who was the chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements. He believes that the major banks are now puzzlingly pursuing short-term growth, which may bring long-term risks again. (Wenwu / Compilation)
1. According to drilling method
(1) Impact drilling rigs, such as wire rope impact drilling rigs (drilling rigs), vibration drilling rigs, etc.
(2) Rotary drilling rigs, such as those used in rotary drilling.
(3) Downhole power drilling tools, such as rotary drilling tools, turbo drilling tools, screw drilling tools, electric drilling tools, etc.
2. Divided by drilling depth
(1) Ultra-deep well drilling rig. It adopts a drilling rig with a diameter of 114 mm drill pipe, a nominal drilling depth range of more than 7000 meters, and a maximum hook load of more than 4,500 kN.
(2) Deep well drilling rig. The drill rod is 114 mm in diameter, the nominal drilling depth is 4000-7000 meters or more, and the maximum hook load is 2250-4500 kN or more.
(3) Drilling rigs for medium and deep wells. It adopts a drilling rig with a diameter of 114 mm drill pipe, a nominal drilling depth range of 1500-4000 meters or more, and a maximum hook load of 900-2250 kN or more.
Three, according to power equipment
(1) Diesel Engine-driven drilling rigs, which use diesel engines as power through mechanical transmission or hydraulic transmission.
(2) AC driven drilling rig, suitable for use in oil fields with industrial power grids.
(3) The drilling rig is driven by direct current, and the working unit is driven by a direct current motor.
Fourth, according to the driving mode
(1) Drive alone. Each working machine is driven by generators of different sizes, which are mostly used for electric drive. The transmission is simple and easy to install, but the power utilization rate is low and the total equipment mass is large.
(2) Unified drive. The three working units of drawworks, drilling Pump and turntable are driven by the same power unit. Most drilling rigs use this scheme. The unified drive can also include only one drilling pump, and the other drilling pump is driven separately. The unified drive drilling rig has high power utilization and can be adjusted mutually when the engine fails, but the transmission is complicated, installation and adjustment are troublesome, and the transmission efficiency is low.
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Summary introduction: The Wall Street Journal recently published an article saying that the world's major central bankers are conducting a high-risk experiment. They hold a secret dinner meeting in Basel every two months, hoping to open up their own path to help the global economy. Avoid falling into a longer-term economy...
Introduction: The Wall Street Journal recently published an article saying that the world's major central bankers are conducting a high-risk experiment. They hold a secret dinner meeting in Basel every two months, hoping to open up their own way to help the global economy avoid Plunged into a longer period of economic stagnation.