Photovoltaic industry retreat or fight

It is only when the water recedes that one knows who is nude. The famous investor Warren Buffett’s famous statement is becoming a portrayal of the current domestic photovoltaic industry dilemma.

The photovoltaic industry, which once let millions of investors take advantage of the purse and made high-speed growth myths, is still suffering in the cold winter: sluggish external demand, overcapacity, price wars, and double anti-surveys. An industry that depends on sunlight to survive is nowadays Covered by a thick haze.

With internal and external difficulties, photovoltaic companies that originally could make money by simply expanding production capacity had to quietly adjust the way, or extend the industrial chain, or attack the domestic market, or force brand building to avoid the coming tide of reshuffle in the industry and the withdrawal of overseas subsidies policies. At the time it became the target of being swallowed.

Photovoltaic industry trapped in "10 ambush"

"I did not expect that the photovoltaic industry is now so difficult to do, it seems that the situation is still clear and then enter it." After a morning at the solar PV exhibition area, Du, an investment company from Qingdao, told reporters with emotion.

This is the scene that took place on March 23 at the Jinan International Convention and Exhibition Center. The 6th China (Jinan) Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition 2012 was held here as scheduled. Although the organizers stated that there were more than 500 exhibitors in this exhibition, it is expected that there will be 73,000 visitors. However, the reporter noticed that the phenomenon of uneven heat and cold in the pavilion can be seen everywhere.

In the solar thermal exhibition area, many exhibitors’ booths were popular. Except for booths of well-known brands such as Huang Ming, Sang Le, Linuo in the province, surrounded by merchants, there were also many audiences before the booths of some unnamed small manufacturer booths. Stop. In the solar photovoltaic exhibition area, besides the huge billboards and enthusiastic materials, there were not many businessmen who came to inquire, and there were no rows of companies in the rows of exhibition booths behind the exhibition area.

“Talking with several exhibitors is not very optimistic about this year's market. The prospects for whether the industry can recover are unclear.” Mr. Du, who has been paying attention to the photovoltaic market, wants to use this exhibition to build a photovoltaic company to take the next step. An investment plan was launched, but the industry’s pessimistic voice still made him dismiss the idea of ​​entering the photovoltaic industry.

Manager Du's feelings are mirroring the dilemma of the current photovoltaic industry's “ten ambush”.

After undergoing a major leap forward in capacity expansion for PV manufacturers in 2010, the once-into-bucket PV industry quickly slipped into a decline. In late November 2011, China's photovoltaic companies listed in the United States issued three quarterly reports. Eight photovoltaic companies only profited from big new energy sources and Jinkoo Energy, and the remaining six companies suffered various losses. The four photovoltaic giants Yingli, Suntech, Trina Solar, and LDK have a total loss of 290 million U.S. dollars.

The overcapacity caused by blind expansion is becoming the enemy of the development of the industry. From a global point of view, the global installed capacity of new photovoltaic installations in 2011 was 27.79GW, a year-on-year increase of 62.97% from 17.5GW in 2010, and the global average capacity utilization rate was less than 60%.

In the European market, which accounts for 80% of global PV demand, affected by the European debt crisis, Germany, Italy, Spain and other major exporters of PV products have reduced subsidies for photovoltaic products, which has exposed the disadvantages of the two raw materials markets in China's photovoltaic industry. The United States' investigation of double-anti-dumping (anti-dumping and countervailing) measures against China's photovoltaic products has intensified its export barriers, and Chinese PV companies have fallen into a quagmire of losses in the price war.

“Last year, the entire PV industry was relatively weak, with many companies entering the market and fierce competition in terminal products.” Li Yanmei, sales manager of Shandong Dahai New Energy Development Co., Ltd., told reporters that the fierce price war made some companies anxious to sell their inventory because they feared that prices would fall again. Products, which in turn drastically reduced the price, fell into a vicious circle.

According to a survey conducted by the Cyber ​​Research Institute of the Sedi ThinkPad Photovoltaic Industry, the profit margin of the domestic PV industry fell from 139% to 20% last year. More than half of the small and medium-sized battery module companies have stopped production, 30% have reduced production, and 10% to 20% have reduced their production margins or tried to maintain , And have begun to lay off workers at different levels.

Responding to the "double reverse" retreat or advancement "From this year, Dongying Photovoltaic has stopped the export of photovoltaic products to the United States." Dong Cheng Photovoltaic Solar Energy Co., Ltd. Manager of Shandong Region Xiangcheng Dong told reporters.

As one of the leading companies in the photovoltaic industry in Shandong Province, 90% of the company’s sales revenue came from exports in 2011. Since the United States initiated a double-counter investigation in October last year, Dongying Photovoltaics has been active in four photovoltaic companies that were initially dumped in the United Nations. Participate in defense defense, but the final results are not satisfactory.

"The 'double reverse' is definitely affecting most of China's export-oriented PV companies. This year we basically stopped exporting to the US market. Most foreign markets are concentrated in Europe, Australia and India." Xiang Chengdong stated that the United States Another preliminary anti-dumping tax rate will be implemented on May 17 this year. When the time comes, the tax rate will increase and the consequences of the “double reverse” will become even more serious. The leakage of house leaks is even more rainy. At present, enterprises in the province are even more worried that India has also launched a "double reverse" survey on China's photovoltaic products. The EU may also adopt similar measures, and the risks of overseas markets are gradually approaching.

Xiang Chengdong told reporters that the company is currently increasing its efforts in the development of the domestic market. The Shandong region established in 2011 is the embodiment of the domestic sales strategy. The proportion of the domestic market will further increase to around 30%.

Compared to the partial exit of Dongying Solar, another photovoltaic giant Linuo in Shandong Province chose to take the initiative. In order to cope with increasingly frequent trade frictions in overseas markets, Linuo Photovoltaic firstly acquired a photovoltaic company in the United States last year and realized the overseas production and sales of photovoltaic products. This not only avoids the “double counter” investigation, but also can enjoy Many US “Sunshine states” have high financial subsidies for photovoltaic products. According to Li Binglin, general manager of Linuo Solar Group, this year, the Group will focus on the development of domestic solar power plants, and gradually achieve 50% of domestic sales and exports.

Director of the Department of Resource Conservation of the Energy Conservation Office of Shandong Province and Vice President and Secretary-General of the Provincial Solar Energy Association Wang Yugang believes that the US “double opposition” has a certain impact on the domestic photovoltaic industry. He agrees that PV companies vigorously develop the domestic market and change the industry for a long time. The development pattern of both ends of the world, but the government should provide more support policies to promote the return of photovoltaic companies. He suggested starting with industrial enterprises and installing solar photovoltaic products simultaneously when their new plant reaches a certain standard.

Rebuilding gold mines to install the after-sales service on the beach. “Now the entire PV industry has entered the deep-water region of competition. Whoever seizes the market segment will be able to get out of the industry as quickly as possible.” The domestic solar giant Yingli Group Shandong Branch came to the show Manager Yao Guofang told reporters.

In Yao Guofang’s view, the current photovoltaic industry has already passed the initial stage where the threshold is low in the early stage and can be profitable by simply expanding production capacity. With the advent of the industry integration period, only the deepening of every link in the industrial chain will be sufficient. Only by popularizing corporate culture can we achieve lasting competitiveness.

A reporter from Yingli's exhibition area saw that the logo of South Africa's World Cup sponsor was quite eye-catching. In the staff's business cards and corporate brochures, the World Cup sponsor's logo was also very obvious. Yao Guofang said that since the 2006 World Cup in Germany to provide solar panels, Yingli has continued to increase its foothold in the World Cup brand marketing.

In addition to launching brand building, Yingli is also beginning to extend upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Yingli began to develop sales, distribution, installation, and after-sales service models in some countries in Europe. It gradually changed from simply selling products to local distributors to self-built warehousing and logistics channels, and organizing home-site installation and service teams to raise the overall level. The profits of the industry chain.

"The profits of the installation and distribution sector can reach more than 30% of the profit of the entire photovoltaic industry." Lu Ming, sales manager of Linuo Solar Group, which has been engaged in the development of the German market since 2005, said that "packaged sales" has a higher profit than pure component sales. More than times.

Subsidy is gradually becoming a trend of photovoltaic popularization. In fact, for domestic PV companies experiencing the ups and downs of fate trajectory, the subsidy policy of foreign market government is undoubtedly the core influencing factor, to some extent, even as a subsidy, Also subsidies."

According to Shinan, sales manager of Linuo Solar Group, it is because of the subsidy policies of the European countries on photovoltaic products that the EU has become the largest market for domestic PV companies to compete for exports.

However, what worries people in the industry is that the international photovoltaic situation seems to be still complex and changeable. The Spanish government suspended the subsidies and the British government also cut one-third. The news that Germany lowered the PV subsidies by 20%-30% from April 1st undoubtedly caused the PV industry to be further hit.

“Actually, some European countries continue to downgrade subsidy because of the objective reasons for reducing fiscal expenditures due to the impact of the European debt crisis. However, in the long-term, we should also see that the downward adjustment of subsidies is an inevitable trend.” Shinan believes that subsidies are becoming a regulation for photovoltaic products in some countries in Europe. Promote the leverage of domestic PV products. In Germany, the price of photovoltaic products has shrunk by 70%-80% within a few years. With the further reduction of subsidies, domestic photovoltaic companies must fight price wars.

Shi Nan said that the current rate of decline in photovoltaic product prices, the European policy subsidy will slowly reduce until the cancellation of the red envelope, then photovoltaic products just like ordinary home appliances into the various stores, as a consumer goods, so as a photovoltaic company must Reduce costs early to respond.

Yao Guofang, manager of Yingli Shandong Branch, also stated that the model of subsidizing the development of photovoltaic products will eventually come to an end, and solar photovoltaic products will eventually become mass products into each household. However, the current global market development is not balanced. Some countries in Europe are progressing quickly. In some countries in Africa and Asia, the government subsidy model is still in a rising period. The next step will inevitably become the main target market for domestic photovoltaic companies. "Of course, the domestic market is gradually starting up, and the opportunity for this double reverse will also help the country adjust its subsidy policy on photovoltaic products. The potential for domestic demand is unlimited."