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Recently, Xiong Yuanquan, deputy secretary-general of the Jiangsu Photovoltaic Association, told reporters that "in the first half of this year, only Jiangsu Province (photovoltaic cells) production is close to half of the total domestic production last year."
However, the rapid development of the downstream has begun to trigger a chain effect - the price curve of solar-grade polysilicon that has been lingering for some time has recently begun to rise.
It is understood that compared with May, the price of solar grade polysilicon rose by 30% last month, and it is expected to exceed 80 US dollars/kg during the year.
In the face of rising costs, the profit margins of downstream PV module manufacturers are being squeezed. Does this mean that a new shuffle is coming soon?
Relative shortage in the 2010 China (Donghai) Silicon Materials Industry Development Forum held in early July, Xiong Yuanquan said, "From our statistics, in the first half of 2010, the province's photovoltaic cell production exceeded 2 GW. â€
This is almost the production figure of Jiangsu Province last year. In 2009, the output of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu Province was about 2,300 megawatts, accounting for about 57% of the national output.
"Considering that September-November is the peak demand for photovoltaic cells, the annual output of photovoltaic cells in Jiangsu Province is expected to reach 4 GW." Xiong Yuanquan predicted.
His predictions are not without factual basis.
Artes general manager Shi Shanglin confirmed to this reporter that his company's products in 2010 have been fully booked, "the order situation in 2011 is also very good."
However, the hot market in the downstream has triggered a “relative shortage†of new raw materials in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain.
According to Xiong Yuanquan, in 2008, Jiangsu Province consumed about 15,800 tons of solar-grade polysilicon, of which about 13,600 tons were imported. Last year, Jiangsu Province's solar-grade polysilicon consumption increased further, reaching about 20,000 tons. Although some polysilicon plants in the province have been put into production, the total output is still only about half of the demand. The other half of the gap is only purchased from foreign markets, with an import volume of about 8,000 tons.
In his view, the gap in polysilicon supply in Jiangsu Province is still large in the future, and it needs to rely on foreign markets.
The current situation in Jiangsu Province is only a microcosm of the national photovoltaic industry. Under the relative shortage, the price of polysilicon that has been stagnation for a while has recently soared.
“Currently, the price of upstream polysilicon is 60-65 US dollars/kg, which is 30% higher than that in May. It is expected to rise to 80 US dollars/kg this year.†Recently, a silicon wafer manufacturer told reporters.
For this forecast, the two largest polysilicon manufacturers in China, LDK and Jiangsu Zhongneng executives, hold the same judgment. Some of the central silicon manufacturers even gave an expectation of 100 USD/kg.
Such price increases have not been surprising to the PV manufacturers who have seen the ups and downs of polysilicon.
In 2004, the price of polysilicon was $24/kg. Since then, all the way up, has risen to 400-500 US dollars / kg in March 2008. However, the high price was not maintained. After one year, the price suddenly fell to $115/kg and fell to around $50/kg at the end of 2009.
The reporter learned that the rise in the price of polysilicon in this round was mainly due to changes in the market supply and demand situation.
"Our (silicon wafer) products are now hard to find." Yao Feng, director of the LDK president office, confirmed to reporters.
As the world's largest PV producer, since 2008, domestic PV module installations have expanded by a factor of two, but the corresponding polysilicon capacity has only expanded by 50%.
Previously, due to the impact of the financial crisis, the downstream installation market was squeezed, and polysilicon prices have been falling. But today's market is reversed, and the European market is hotter than expected this year.
Yao Feng said, "In May of the past year, it entered the off-season, but this year, until June, the products are still in short supply. The well-known domestic photovoltaic cell manufacturers and component companies are still producing at full capacity."
The cost crisis, but the rising cost of silicon wafers, has gradually become the crisis that the lowest downstream component manufacturers will face.
Wang Xinghua, chairman of Zhongsheng Optoelectronics, admitted that although the wafer manufacturers began to increase prices at the end of May and early June, the PV terminal signed a full-year agreement with customers at the beginning of the year. Since the annual price has been locked, (we) can only bear the pressure of rising polysilicon prices.
In his view, "the rise of parts has a great impact on the pure component manufacturers. If you don't have your own wafer factory or battery, it will be difficult to survive in the second half of the year."
Although the price of polysilicon continues to rise, in the short term, the new supply will not fall from the sky.
“Because of the restrictions of the State Council’s Circular No. 38 last year, the new polysilicon project has not been approved. In fact, even if approved, the new project will need a two-year commissioning period. At the same time, in the international market, Japan’s Deshan, Norway The expansion of REC, WACKER, and Hemlock in the United States is also very cautious, so the tight supply of polysilicon is difficult to change in the future." Yao Feng explained.
In this situation, well-known component manufacturers face cost pressures, while small component manufacturers have difficulty exporting because there is no brand.
In 2009, domestic photovoltaic cell production reached 4,000 megawatts, and more than 95% of the products were exported to foreign countries. But compared with a few years ago, it is undeniable that the regulation of export markets has become more and more strict. Export products are subject to insurance company underwriting and external certification (such as IEC61215, IEC61730, UL and CE) in order to enter the European and US markets.
But this does not mean that the market space has shrunk. In fact, the international PV market is still expanding.
According to estimates by Solarbuzz, a world-renowned solar market research and consulting company, the current installed trend is expected to be twice the installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants this year, and the power generation will reach 15.2G watts.
Wang Xinghua believes that the brand component supplier or because of the good relationship with the silicon wafer manufacturers, can obtain a better price of polysilicon wafers, so as to remain competitive. In addition, companies such as Savi LDK and Tianwei Yingli have production of polysilicon and components, which have the advantage of upstream and downstream integration. "Unsurprisingly, these two types of companies will gain greater market share."
Industry insiders estimate that small and medium-sized PV module companies that cannot absorb the pressure of rising costs may once again fall into the dilemma of bankruptcy or suspension after the financial crisis.
In the eyes of large-scale PV manufacturers, these companies are on the verge of bankruptcy and have no value in mergers and acquisitions.
"We will not merge small-sized component companies because there are too many similar production lines in China. We feel that it is more cost-effective to build or expand according to our own plans," said CSI Artes, one of the country's top five component suppliers.
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The photovoltaic industry is getting hot.