On February 16, Beijing's "New Article Eight" was issued, and the implementation rules stated that "the sale of houses to foreigners who have not paid taxes or social security for five consecutive years is suspended, and the sale of houses to households with household registration in the city that already has 2 or more houses is suspended , For households with household registration in this city who already own one set of housing, the purchase of one set of housing is restricted, and the down payment ratio and interest rate of the second suite may be further increased. " The property market regulation has once again become the focus of attention.

Since the Central Economic Work Conference on December 7, 2009, property market adjustment policies have been frequent. The first round of real estate regulation marked by "National Eleven Articles" and the second round of real estate regulation marked by "National Ten Articles" have been introduced one after another, which to some extent curbed the trend of excessively rapid housing prices, but still faces A lot of upward pressure. At this time, the third round of regulation marked by the “National Eight Articles” that “resolutely curb excessively rapid rises” struck. The “National Eight Articles” and the real estate tax pilot policy were issued, and the central bank raised the loan interest rate again to fully extend and strengthen the previous introduction. The various regulatory policies, especially the management of demand, have reached unprecedented intensity.

Facing this series of powerful property market regulation and control, how will the downstream home furnishing industry closely related to the real estate industry be affected? Industry insiders hold two views on the market trend of the home furnishing industry. Pessimists believe that the focus of the real estate network, real estate regulation will reduce the volume of housing transactions, and the home furnishing industry will once again enter the "cold winter"; while optimists believe that the country's heavy control of real estate is intended to combat speculative real estate speculation, with investment and speculation in the market Gradually shrinking, the home furnishing industry will benefit from the “second spring” of real estate regulation and control.

The New Deal struck the home industry and encountered "shock"?

"Regulation" is not new to China's property market, and has even become the most popular word. After experiencing two rounds of real estate regulation and control policies, facing the third round of real estate regulation and control by the Thunder, the future trend of the real estate industry seems confusing. In such an unclear environment, the home furnishing industry made two different voices.

Many people in the industry are optimistic about the impact of the property market on the home furnishing industry. Among them, the most representative is Sun Wei, chairman of Shichuang. In his view, "the macro-control of real estate implemented by the state has not had too much impact on the home furnishing industry. Regulations and other regulatory policies implemented in Beijing are aimed at suppressing investment behavior and have little effect on the rigid demand for 'home ownership'. "Admittedly, the mainstream people in home consumption are rigid demanders and demanders of improved housing. Their needs In order to really affect the sales of the home industry.

Coincidentally, Wang Wei, general manager of Red Star Macalline Beijing, Shanghai and Southwest District, also expressed strong agreement with home.focus.cn, "The introduction of real estate regulation and control policies is conducive to the healthy and harmonious development of the real estate business. Real estate tax funds are used for the construction of affordable housing, which will also expand the market of the home building materials industry, which is conducive to the long-term development of the upstream and downstream. "According to reporters, the current" national eight "has put" implementation of housing security and stabilization of housing prices " After the introduction of real estate regulation and control, the local governments have increased their construction of affordable housing projects. From this, it can be seen that affordable housing and secondary decoration will become an important profit channel for future home furnishing enterprises under the pressure of property market regulation.

In the face of an overwhelming combination of property market regulation and control, some people in the home furnishing industry also issued a voice that is not optimistic. In their view, the eight national regulations, real estate taxes, and the upcoming eight national implementation rules of various countries will surely give the real estate industry Bring a major blow. Among them, the most representative is Sui Youbin, chairman of Ai Ruisi. He pointed out that "the real estate regulation and control policy has seriously affected the development of the home furnishing industry. The state's macro-control is nothing more than a" purchase restriction ". In his view, market share will fall by 30% -50%."

At the same time, Yin Yuxin, deputy general manager of Oriental Home Furnishing Plaza, also holds the same view. According to his estimation, Tianlong Babu, subject to Beijing's implementation rules, will reduce the transaction volume of Beijing's new houses by 30% -50%, and the sales volume of home furnishing will also show a downward trend. Indeed, the home furnishing industry and the real estate industry are inextricably linked. As President Yin said, "real estate is the driving force behind the development of home furnishing." As such, it is inferred that the real estate regulation policies have been introduced one after another, and the home furnishing industry is bound to be affected.

Regulating and changing the market demand structure

At present, the real estate market has encountered unprecedented stringent regulation and control in the past ten years. A series of combination of regulation and control has reduced the transaction volume of real estate to a certain extent. Although real estate regulation impacts the development of the home furnishing industry, corporate leaders have their own opinions, and opinions vary. But from the reporter's interview, companies are fully prepared for this.

Facing the forthcoming tide of affordable housing and the second tide of renovation, Wang Wei, general manager of Red Star Macalline Beijing-Shanghai · Southwest District, revealed to reporters, "In 2011, market demand will change, and Red Star Macalline will focus on security Sexual housing and secondary decoration people, launched a series of activities, from the service, management, innovation and other efforts to promote the prosperity of the home market. "

At the same time, Sunway Chairman Sun Wei paid more attention to fine decoration. Driven by the double encouragement of national policies and market demand, 17173, refined decoration houses have increasingly become the mainstream development trend of the real estate market. Sun said that in 2011, Real Creation will continue to take the mid-end market route firmly and launch refined decoration services to the public. Package. In his view, with the advancement of real estate regulation and control policies, the high-end market share will shrink and continue to slump, and mid-market demand may show an upward trend.

Sui Youbin, chairman of Ai Ruisi, faced heavy control of the property market, but "moved out" another set of strategies, he pointed out, "The Beijing version of the rules issued on February 16 will make the Beijing market continue to slump, and market share Continue to shrink. In this case, Ai Ruisi chose to move to second- and third-tier cities. "In his view, macro-control is the most tightly focused on first-tier cities, and the most stringent regulation, so second- and third-tier cities will become real estate Where businesses and home furnishing companies work.

Is the Year of the Rabbit home market ushering in the "second spring"?

To some extent, real estate regulation in 2011 was faster and more fierce than in previous years. According to the latest survey, the first-tier domestic real estate cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all experienced a significant decline in trading volume in the first week of February, and some cities in the Pearl River Delta even experienced a single-week trading volume drop to single digits. Faced with such a severe external environment, the reporter discovered during the interview that the industry has shown a certain degree of confidence in the market this year.

Despite the rumors in the face of a super real estate regulation network super girl, home market sales may fall into the "ice valley." But industry insiders hold different views. Zhao Ruihai, chairman of Qumei Furniture, pointed out that in the face of a series of real estate regulation policies, the home furnishing industry will not fall into the "ice valley". If he is allowed to score, he believes that the Year of the Rabbit home industry will remain at 3C ° development tone. Zhao Jianguo, President of Jimei Home Furnishing Group, explained this, "With the increase of new construction area and accumulation of stock, people's demand for decoration and furniture will gradually increase, and rigid demand will exist for a long time."

During the interview, the reporter found that although the real estate industry in the upstream of the home is about to "welcome" the cold winter network super girl, but industry insiders still have great expectations for the year of the rabbit home market. Some people even predict that the home furnishing industry will be blowout this year and usher in the development of the "second spring". Wang Wei, general manager of Red Star Macalline Beijing-Shanghai Southwest District, confidently pointed out, "The home furnishing industry pays more attention to the transaction volume of self-occupied home purchases because investment purchases are often not decorated. The purpose of regulation is to suppress investment and return housing prices. At a reasonable price, the supply of housing will rise accordingly. Secondary decoration and affordable housing will become a new incremental demand for the home furnishing industry. Compared with previous years, the market will show an upward trend. "In his view, rigid demand still exists In addition, the second decoration and affordable housing will reduce the impact of the decrease in the turnover of new houses, and will stimulate the prosperity of the home furnishing market in the Year of the Rabbit.

In this regard, Sun Wei, Chairman of Shichuang, holds the same view. "Real estate regulation is intensifying, and the implementation of policies such as 'restrictions on purchases' and 'prices' has forced secondary home purchases and multiple home purchases to be strictly restricted. In this case Consumers are expected to save a lot of budget and invest money in home renovations. "Therefore, in his view, rigid demand still exists, and the home market not only does not shrink, but is expected to show" explosive "growth, ushering in the home industry Develop the "second spring".

Yin Bo, general manager of Lanjing Lijia Home Plaza, further explained that 17173, the role of the controlled property market policy, house prices will soon bottom out, consumers holding money to buy will soon start to buy a house. At the same time, the government is concerned about the construction of affordable housing, and this field will become one of the main forces of future market demand. Therefore, he believes that the household industry may blow out, or even produce large-scale concentrated consumption like volcanic eruptions.

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